France on edge: Will voters usher in a new far-right era?

Many people in France and across the world are holding their breath as they await the outcome of the second round of French Presidential elections this weekend, amid renewed hope to stave off the far right.

In the first round, which took place earlier this month, anti-Islam, far-right politician Marine Le Pen stormed ahead.

This did not happen suddenly but took decades of pushing a carefully orchestrated anti-immigrant populist narrative. This effort has left an indelible stain on the electorate, which is ready to take its discontent with political traditionalism to the ballot box.

The present suspense has been caused by President Emmanuel Macron's gamble in dissolving the National Assembly and calling for new elections last month.

In response to Le Pen's recent strong showing, centrist and left-wing candidates appear to be forming an alliance to stop her from gaining too much traction in the government.

Many members of the majority, starting with the head of government Gabriel Attal and Macron, are asking voters of La France Insoumise (LFI) to vote for MPs from the centre bloc, while turning their backs against the National Rally and the parties on the left.

Bold strategy

The question is, will the strategy work?

Up until now, the National Rally had appeared to be in a good position to obtain the greatest number of elected officials.

But the withdrawal of more than 215 candidates from the left and the centre this week to avoid dividing the opposition vote could complicate the achievement of this objective.

Notably, even if Le Pen's National Rally (RN) captures the majority in the Assembly, it would not have complete freedom.

Firstly, because Macron would still be in office. This would allow him to save what's left of his party if the National Rally wins an absolute majority of seats.

If the far right leads the government, Macron could try to regain some sort of long-term political legitimacy by presenting himself as a guarantor of the Constitution, trying to protect the French from certain decisions of the extreme right.

Secondly, some of the RN's reforms could face challenges in the courts, especially if they deviate from constitutional texts or international treaties.

The most likely scenario now is that the RN obtains the largest number of elected officials, but does not reach the key threshold of 289 deputies to obtain a majority.

No majority

If this happened, it would still be possible for the party to form a government. Macron's coalition has been in power for two years now without having an absolute majority, for example.

However, the leaders of the RN prefer to avoid this scenario and Jordan Bardella has even affirmed that he would not become prime minister without an absolute majority. Nevertheless, the idea of ​​a different composition of the Assembly is starting to make its way into the party offices.

On Tuesday, Marine Le Pen raised the possibility that her party would obtain 270 deputies, or around 20 elected officials short of a majority. In this case, the majority could be supplemented with alliances.

At the start of its campaign, the National Rally had already orchestrated an electoral alliance with the president of the traditional right-wing Les Républicains (LR) party, Éric Ciotti.

But part of his group decided not to join this alliance. This branch of the party could elect a few dozen deputies on Sunday who may or may not vote with the RN every time.

Convinced that no party other than the RN is able to obtain an absolute majority, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal raised the idea of a plural Assembly in an interview on the TF1 channel earlier this week.

If, without an absolute majority, the RN fails to gain power and ensure the survival of a possible government, several political groups could be called upon to collaborate.

In this scenario, new governance and a new way of operating would be required, said Attal, something his government has failed to accomplish over the past two years.

Governing together?

Without more details, this option is difficult to consider. Joining forces to electorally block the RN is one thing, but governing together is another. The ideological differences are deep between the different political forces opposed to the far right, from the most radical branches of the left to the right.

To reach out to other political parties, Attal has even already announced the withdrawal of his controversial unemployment insurance reform, which was much criticised on the left.

Meanwhile, environmentalist leader Marine Tondelier has not closed the door to the idea of collaboration, but one of the leaders of the La France Insoumise party has already rejected this type of government alliance.

The rebels will only govern to implement their program and nothing but their program declared Manuel Bompard.

Unlike their German neighbours, who are accustomed to political negotiations, French politicians are less familiar with this type of grand coalition.

But to avoid perpetual crises, President Macron could be tempted to appoint this type of government.

Led by a consensual prime minister and accepted by a majority of parliamentarians, this government could be made up of experts or representatives of civil society who are not controversial and whose mission would be to conduct the current affairs of France.

Although rare, such a scenario is not unprecedented in Europe. In Italy, the former president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi led this type of government between February 2021 and October 2022.

Although supported by a majority of Italian elected officials, this trans-parliamentary government encountered opposition from the party radical right Fratelli d'Italia by Giorgia Meloni, who won the 2022 legislative elections and who now leads Italy.

Would French elected officials be ready to support a government not from the big families represented in the Assembly? In a very partisan context, the question arises.

President Macron will therefore have to deal at least until July 2025 with the Assembly which he will inherit on Sunday evening - and the French will have to grapple with this as well.