Haniyeh assassination: A move to destabilise the political future of Hamas?

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, 62, the chairman of the Hamas political bureau, in Tehran, who was overseeing diplomacy and cease-fire talks with Israel through Egyptian and Qatari negotiators, shocked the world.

Haniyeh was the most astute diplomat of Hamas. In the months before his assassination, Haniyeh played an important role in bringing Hamas, Fatah and other Palestinian resistance groups together and spearheaded talks with Fatah leaders, which led to the Palestinian groups signing the Beijing Declaration for Unity in July, with support from the Chinese government.

“Ismail Haniyeh possessed strong political acumen and adeptly navigated the internal diplomatic dynamics within the movement. Haniyeh endeavoured to advance Hamas's strategic and military objectives through negotiation efforts. Internally within the movement, he demonstrated adept leadership abilities and had the potential to encourage a cease-fire if presented with a genuine offer,” commented Tareq Baconi, an author and president of the board of Al-Shabaka: The Palestinian Policy Network.

A globally recognised symbol of Palestinian resistance against Israel, Haniyeh was born in the Al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, studied Arabic literature, was involved in the First Palestinian Intifada against Israel in 1987 and became a founding member of Hamas, which was established in 1987 right after the Intifada broke out.

Haniyeh, who was imprisoned by Israel three times, was among around 400 members and leaders of Palestinian resistance deported to Southern Lebanon in 1992. The southern Lebanon experience was crucial in the globalisation of Hamas, got its leaders greater access to regional and global media, and brought greater attention to Hamas—essentially an Israeli tactic that failed. From southern Lebanon, Hamas leaders and members moved to different parts of the region but stayed close to Palestine: Jordan, Syria, Türkiye, and Qatar.

After the first Oslo Accord was signed, Haniyeh returned to Gaza. After Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Hamas’s spiritual leader and founder, was released from an Israeli prison in 1997, Haniyeh was appointed his assistant, became his close confidant, and rose within the ranks of the Palestinian leadership.

After Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian elections, Haniyeh’s importance was reiterated with his appointment as the Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority. After his victory, Israel and Egypt imposed a blockade of Gaza and Western countries cut funding to the Palestinian Authority. “This siege should not break our will,” Haniyeh responded defiantly in 2006 after the siege was imposed.

A period of factional fights between Hamas and Fatah followed in Gaza, which saw much disorder, violence, and the rise of armed clans. Hamas, led by Haniyeh, who was born in Gaza, imposed order, reduced chaos, and restored stability.

Despite being the top leader in Gaza, Haniyeh did not become spoiled by power and lived a modest life, living in the refugee camp, playing football with young Palestinians on the streets, and cementing his popularity in Gaza and occupied West Bank as a leader not just of Hamas, but of Palestine.

One of the most striking examples of leadership was that Haniyeh maintained a close relationship with Palestine’s ancient Christian community. As the Palestinian Prime Minister, Haniyeh joined Palestinian Christians in protests against Israeli incursions into the Greek Orthodox Church in Gaza City in July 2006. When Hossam Al-Tawil, a leading Palestinian Christian politician, who was the secretary general of the council of Arab Orthodox Churches and was elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council with the support of Hamas, passed away in 2012, Haniyeh stood as a mourner with his family in Gaza City. Haniyeh maintained his relationship with the Palestinian Christian community even after his appointment as the head of the Hamas political bureau in 2017.

Haniyeh’s dedication to the resistance, his reputation as a pragmatist administrator and an astute diplomat showed in polling regarding Palestinian leadership. A survey regarding the new presidential elections in Palestine by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) conducted between 22 November and 2 December 2023 reported that in a two-way presidential contest between Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmoud Abbas, Haniyeh would get 78 percent of Palestinian votes compared to 16 percent that Abbas would receive.

Israel would have been worried by Haniyeh’s stature and popularity among the Palestinians. His assassination also ended the possibility of his participation and victory, in such an election in the future.

Hamas after Haniyeh

In fact, Israel’s policy of occupation of Gaza by air, land, and sea to punish Hamas for winning the 2006 elections and trying to force the group to lay down their weapons and stop challenging its authority failed. The killing of Ismail Haniyeh is the last instance of this resentment against Palestinians resisting to fight for their freedom and rejecting the current order. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to argue that Israel killed a chance for durable peace in Palestine, and it forced Palestinian politics to stick with the ancien régime that was created after the Oslo Peace Accords.

The loss of Ismail Haniyeh is leading to new consultations and decisions about the future of Hamas leadership. Hamas has survived the loss of its leaders before. In 2004, Israel assassinated Ahmed Yassin, the founder of Hamas, and a month later, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, the co-founder of Hamas.

After four names appeared as the successors: Yahya Sinwar, Khaled Mishaal, Khalil al-Hayya, or Zaher Jabarin. However, in order to avoid creating a power vacuum, within one week, Hamas declared its current Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, as their new head of the politburo.

Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza since 2017, has long been considered a planner of Hamas’s military strategy. He will also replace Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s previous political leader and a key liaison in the indirect cease-fire talks with Israel. Sinwar, a familiar face to international media, is one of the few leaders of Hamas that is actively fighting inside Gaza against occupation. He has also published a novel: “The Thorn and The Carnation”.

Selecting someone who is the most wanted man for Israel amid the discussions of ceasefires and negotiations may come as a surprise to some. However, Hamas had to take into account the generational shift and public popularity of the movement's new leader. Sinwar has a long-established experience inside Gaza and relationships among other political factions. Hamas made a strategic choice by choosing someone who can make the voice from the “streets of Gaza” heard around the globe in the speeches of Sinwar.

Palestinian resistance against the occupation continued despite their loss. Two years later, surprising many observers, Hamas contested Palestinian elections and proved its legitimacy by winning the vote of the people.

Twenty years later, today, despite an ongoing genocide and the assassination of its major leaders, the Palestinian people are yet again not bowing to the violent occupation and continuing their resistance.