Modi risks undermining regional ties by skipping SCO Summit in Pakistan

Last week, Pakistan sent invitations to heads of member and observer states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to attend the October 2024 Summit of Heads of Government in Islamabad.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi received an invite, despite hostile relations between the two neighbouring South Asian nations over several issues, including the disputed Jammu and Kashmir territory and concerns about terrorism on both sides.

However, Pakistan's recent overture in the form of the SCO event, as well as past attempts to foster dialogue, demonstrates that it is willing to engage with India in multilateral forums and opt for a constructive approach to bilateral relations.

But if Modi opts not to reciprocate by attending, he could set a negative precedent for India's relations with Pakistan and for the SCO as well.

Modi's anti-Pakistan record

There are reasons to believe that Modi might snub Pakistan's invitation. Since assuming power in 2014, the hardline Hindu nationalist leader has constantly engaged in anti-Pakistan, pro-war and isolationist rhetoric, labelling Islamabad as a state sponsor of terror.

Even during election campaigns, Modi's position on Pakistan has been anchored in jingoistic hyperbole and followed up by anti-Islamabad policy making by his BJP government after assuming power.

This includes suspending dialogue with Pakistan over disputed Jammu and Kashmir and attempting to isolate Islamabad in multilateral forums such as the United Nations.

The same tough talk on Pakistan is also visible in 2024. Straight after Pakistan sent SCO invites, India's Minister for External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar lambasted Islamabad and stated that the era of uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan is over.

He further claimed that the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution which granted Jammu and Kashmir "special status" as an autonomous region, is a done deal.

Such proclivity towards populism is an attempt by Modi to consolidate the BJP's domestic standing as public opinion remains in favour of his government in part because of his anti-Pakistan rhetoric.

The question then is: Will the Modi regime persist with populism instead of constructive engagement with Pakistan even if it comes at the cost of not participating in the 2024 SCO Summit?

Much to lose

Modi and his government should realise that there is more at stake in declining Pakistan's invitation than just their relationship with their neighbour.

By opting out, India would be placing its narrow parochial interests of isolating Pakistan over the collective objectives of the SCO, which include strengthening mutual trust, friendship and good-neighbourliness between member states. This does not work well for India as it is a recent addition to the SCO, becoming a full member in 2017.

Set up by Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China in 2001, the SCO is not a bilateral playground but a Eurasian, multilateral economic, political and military organisation.

It is also the largest regional entity in the world based on population and geographical scope with member states focusing on subjects such as joint responses to regional security concerns such as terrorism, extremism and cyberwarfare and expansion of regional economic integration.

This multilateral platform is clearly not a venue for political bickering, blame games or the accusations that India has constantly levelled against Pakistan. It is also not a forum for resolving bilateral issues either.

In light of this, Modi's decision not to attend the 2024 Summit of the Heads of Government in Islamabad puts his government on a collision course with the SCO's mandate, which further dampens prospects for collective engagement on broader, geopolitical issues in the region.

Previously, one of the only other known instances of member states being hostile at the SCO was between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2022.

Nothing new at the SCO

India under Modi is no outsider to using SCO forums to target Pakistan. New Delhi's diplomatic spat with Islamabad over terrorism and the Kashmir issue was evident at the SCO Foreign Ministers meeting in 2023 in Goa.

At the time, India's external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar traded barbs with Pakistan's former Foreign Minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. This is despite the fact that FM Zardari became the first Pakistani foreign minister to travel to India in more than 12 years.

A repeat, either through a snub of Pakistan or fiery rhetoric if Modi attends, does not bode well for the SCO.

Recall too, that India was previously blamed by Pakistan for stalling the progress of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a regional, intergovernmental organisation representing South Asian states.

SAARC's failure to integrate the South Asian region economically and come up with collective solutions to challenging problems such as climate crisis, terrorism and widespread poverty has been largely due to India's political differences with Pakistan.

In light of recent events, India stands to benefit from closer relations with its South Asian neighbours (including Pakistan) and SCO member states as its influence has waned after the demise of the pro-India, Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh. Hence, boycotting the SCO Summit in Islamabad would be costly for India’s regional foreign policy, something Modi should be mindful of.

Compared to the SAARC, the SCO is a broader, more influential organisation, with countries such as China and Russia laying a solid foundation and preventing any single member state from derailing it without consequences.

Yet Modi's hostile attitude towards Pakistan risks diverting attention away from the SCO's agenda in 2024. By rejecting Pakistan's invitation, Modi would irk other member states who wish to proceed and deliberate in an apolitical and meaningful manner.

This breaks from previous instances where India and Pakistan have avoided jeopardising the group's priorities by previously attending SCO summits of Heads of State as well as meetings involving Foreign Ministers.

All this could change if Modi remains fixated on snubbing Pakistan to consolidate his domestic position.

Also, by bypassing an SCO summit in Pakistan, India's image of being a globalised rising power in Asia with strong, established alliances in the Quad, which is a security dialogue between Australia, Japan, India and the United States in the Asia Pacific; and BRICS, an intergovernmental organisation comprising Brazil, South Africa, India, Russia, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the UAE, suffers.

With organisations such as the SCO having a stake in peace between India and Pakistan, it is worthwhile for Modi to accept the reality that on occasion, multilateralism will involve having Pakistan at the table.

So far, India under Modi has not moved beyond its anti-Pakistan binary. With the SCO Heads of Government Summit in 2024 around the corner, Modi's hubris could bode ill for India-Pakistan relations and the SCO's collective agenda.