More Pakistani Americans are expressing support for Trump. Why?

With just days to go before the highly anticipated United States elections, a debate is heating up within the Pakistani-American community about who to support for president.

Just last week, the Pakistani-American Public Affairs Committee (PAKPAC USA), a group focused on political coordination, activism and advocacy of federal policy making in the US, shocked many by endorsing former President Donald Trump.

There are some 625,000 Pakistani Americans in the US, which is a tiny fraction of the electorate. But many in the the seventh largest Asian-American ethnic group are located in key swing states including Michigan and Pennsylvania, giving them outsized influence in the election.

And it appears some Pakistani-Americans are bucking the historical trend of voting for Democrats by backing Trump this year.

A number of factors explain this trend.

Imran Khan supporters

In its statement endorsing Trump, PAKPAC USA said one major factor in its decision involved foreign affairs.

"While we certainly do not agree with the former President on every issue, after extensive meetings with his campaign and with the Harris campaign, we believe the former President is the candidate who will improve US-Pakistan relations," it said.

The group, which retains strong ties with their ancestral land, also chastised US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris's administration for doing little to release Pakistan's imprisoned ex-Prime Minister, Imran Khan.

Khan, who was jailed on corruption charges after being ousted in a vote of no-confidence in 2022, initially blamed the Biden-Harris administration for orchestrating his downfall.

Note that during his tenure, the Biden administration did not engage with the political leadership of Imran Khan, while his relationship with the current Shehbaz Sharif regime has been relatively more constructive.

With a sizable percentage of Pakistani-Americans consisting of Khan supporters, many view a Trump victory as heralding a potential breakthrough with Khan, akin to when the two met at the White House in 2019 to mend ties.

Many voters also believe that Trump in the White House could help Khan get out of jail.

However, such scenarios remain far-fetched. On the campaign trail, Trump has given no indication that he would get involved in Pakistan's internal affairs or work to alter Khan's prison status once in power.

Repudiating Harris on Gaza

The war on Gaza is also on the minds of Pakistani-Americans, who are overwhelmingly Muslim and anti-Israel. As a result, they are consistent with other Muslim American voters in denouncing the Biden administration's unequivocal support for Israel amid its genocide against Palestinians.

This was most recently evident in Virginia, where Pakistani Americans at an event about civic engagement expressed support for Trump in hopes of ending the war.

Similarly, many Pakistani Americans have previously voted "uncommitted" in cities such as Chicago and Dallas, citing the genocide in Gaza and the Biden administration's inaction as a major reason for their decision.

The question then is: will Trump do better?

The Republican candidate shares a close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration and could continue the US's policy of offering unconditional support to Israel when he assumes office.

But his calls to end the war in Gaza has resonated with some sections of the Pakistani-American community, which form part of the broad Muslim American vote bank.

Such rhetoric does not necessarily indicate a departure from Trump's previous support for Israel, such as when he relocated US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in 2017.

But it differs from what many Pakistani and Muslim Americans consider to be a duplicitous policy from the Democratic administration, which has called for an end to the conflict in Gaza while continuing to send billions of dollars to help Israel carry out attacks there.

Anger at the current administration has been evident during many of Harris's campaign stops. For example, in Michigan this week her remarks on Gaza were met with angry protests by pro-Palestinian supporters.

So for many Pakistani-Americans, voting for Trump is more an act of defiance against the Democrats, rather than support for the Republican himself.

Shared business interests

However, it is important to note that a sizable number of Pakistani Americans are businessmen, entrepreneurs, innovators and owners of SMEs or small and medium sized enterprises.

As a result, many such as businessman Sajid Tarrar, who has worked for Trump, said they are inclined to vote for Trump because of the Republican candidate's promises of domestic economic reform, creation of more jobs and reversing the Biden administration's alleged "contributions" to lower-income Americans, which they blame for spurring more unemployment and inflationary pressure.

While evidence suggests that the Biden administration has not done too bad on the economy such as adding millions of jobs and increasing median household income, the Republican candidate's castigation of the Democrats' economic performance and promises of reform appeal to Pakistani American businessmen such as Tarar.

"If we look at inflation, foreign-policy conditions and the border crisis, it seems that the White House is not run by Biden. Given all these circumstances, people hope that Donald Trump will win. You might be surprised, I have been receiving calls from Muslims across the country that they want to support Trump," Tarar told media in July.

Not a monolith

Still, despite this rising tide, it is important to not exaggerate this break from historical tradition.

Not everyone in the Pakistani-American community favours Trump. Many, particularly younger, progressive Pakistani-Americans continue to support Harris over her stance on supporting social welfare programs and justice reform, which hints at a divide on voter preferences amid the diaspora.

Additionally, Trump's previous era has been characterised by the rise of domestic white supremacist groups who have attacked non white Americans, including Muslims, in racially motivated crimes. The possibility of these groups once again gaining prominence presents a domestic security threat for the Pakistani-American community, who remain overwhelmingly Muslim, non-white and pro-Palestine.

Finally, it is possible that Trump's rhetoric on resolving the Gaza crisis could be followed with an unequivocal backing of Israel, as was the case during his first term.

Trump is also known for having excellent relations with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is known for his Hindu nationalist views and anti-Pakistan stance. Trump's backing of Modi against Pakistan regionally and turning a blind eye to Hindu nationalist and white supremacist groups domestically, could lead to further disillusionment in the Pakistani-American community.

What is undeniable however, is that the rise in Trump's support among Pakistani-Americans is a new trend in American politics and reflective of the nature of the 2024 Presidential election, which is characterised by polarisation and varying voter preferences.