Pakistan and Afghanistan must join forces to fight rising terrorism threat

Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are reaching a boiling point, amid escalating rhetoric and bombing campaigns in recent weeks. The latest hostilities kicked off last month, when a group of suicide bombers targeted a military checkpost in Pakistan’s North Waziristan district, which is in close proximity to Afghanistan.

The attacks resulted in the deaths of at least seven Pakistani soldiers and angered Islamabad, who then launched retaliatory air raids into Afghanistan. According to Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, those raids targeted hideouts of armed groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which is allegedly using Afghan soil as a launchpad for numerous attacks on Pakistan.

This includes the egregious and harrowing Army Public School attack of 2014 in Peshawar, which resulted in 132 school children being massacred in broad daylight by the TTP.

Afghanistan's response was to call out Pakistan for its recklessness, while pointing out that eight people, including five women and three children, were killed in the subsequent air raids. The Afghan military then fired mortar shells on Pakistani military positions in the border districts, killing four civilians and three soldiers.

These deadly developments are unfolding in the absence of meaningful engagement between the two Asian neighbours, who share close ethnic, religious and cultural ties. Amid rising transnational terrorism threats, such flare ups, trust deficits, conflicting narratives and suspicions harm bilateral relations and provide a safe cover for groups such as the TTP to carry out attacks with impunity.

It needs to be immediately addressed for many reasons. The ripple effect of terrorist attacks amid a lack of governmental and security cooperation on staving off potent and existential threats has dangerous implications for both countries, and challenges broader regional peace and international security.

Such security quagmires must be addressed through bilateral engagement, dialogue and diplomacy.

The context

This tit for tat engagement is not new. Since the Taliban government assumed power in Afghanistan in 2021, Islamabad has repeatedly accused it of failing to prevent terrorists from exploiting Afghan soil to launch attacks within Pakistan.

A total of 789 TTP attacks in Pakistan took place in 2023 alone, the highest number since 2017. On the other hand, the Afghan Taliban government has contended that Pakistan must resolve its own internal issues, and that actions such as cross-border raids are unacceptable.

It is clear that in the absence of diplomacy and engagement to address security quagmires, both sides maintain conflicting narratives, viewpoints and outlooks on curbing terrorism inside their own countries.

This is dangerous. Kabul and Islamabad trading barbs will only embolden terrorists to exploit security vacuums and launch attacks against civilian populations and military installations. The dire necessity to engage in counterterrorism dialogue is also predicated upon the nature of the threat that Afghanistan, Pakistan and the wider Asian region faces.

Regional woes

Take transnational terrorist groups as an example. Lack of engagement on counterterrorism makes it easier for the Daesh-K to carry out attacks such as the recent suicide blasts at a bank in Kandahar.

Months earlier in January, the group purportedly bombed memorial services in Iran, where crowds gathered to mark the four-year anniversary of the death of former Revolutionary Guard commander Qasem Soleimani. And returning to the present, US intelligence supports Daesh-K's claim of being responsible for the recent Moscow concert hall massacre, which resulted in at least 143 deaths.

Formed in 2015, Daesh-K considers itself to be the larger branch of Daesh in Iraq and Syria, with a pan-regional objective of establishing a so-called caliphate across South and Central Asia.

The group also attacks countries suspected of maintaining ties with Western states as well as Russia and China, whom it considers to run contrary to its ultra-puritanical Salafi ideology. Daesh-K is reportedly based in the eastern Afghanistan province of Nangarhar and has close to 4,000 and 6,000 fighters. The group also targets Pakistan, as demonsrated during a political rally held in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province prior to the 2024 Pakistan elections, which resulted in 54 deaths in a suicide attack.

The spike in transnational terrorism from groups such as Daesh-K and the TTP is palpable. It warrants a more holistic response from Kabul and Islamabad, which transcends blame games, leveling of allegations and castigation from both sides on doing enough to rein in terrorism. The question is, how can Pakistan and Afghanistan ensure a better response?

Working together

One way is to expand bilateral engagements beyond trade talks to include counterterrorism, intelligence-based operations and regional security. Bilateralism is critical as multilateral initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Coordination Group have remained mired in distrust, animosity and suspicion due to the Taliban’s prior reservations over American and NATO intervention.

The QCG has also not held a meeting for the past five years. This is because the United States has refused to recognise the Taliban government, as has Pakistan. However, lack of diplomatic recognition should not stymie bilateral engagement on counterterrorism from taking place, especially in light of emerging dynamics in 2024.

Kickstarting dialogue on counterterrorism could yield parallel positive developments for both sides. Note that subsequent to the cross-border terrorist attacks and responses, Pakistan and Afghanistan reached agreements during trade talks in Kabul that include commencing negotiations on a revised transit trade agreement and facilitating cross-border trade through a temporary admission document (TAD) for trade vehicle drivers.

The undeniable reality that a spike in terrorist attacks can easily jeopardize trading ties for cash-strapped Afghanistan and an economically struggling Pakistan should be enough of an incentive to engage in bilateral engagement to address terrorism threats.

There is no other option. With the majority of governments across the world refusing to recognise the Taliban and engage with them, bilateralism, dialogue and diplomacy is the only way forward for Pakistan and Afghanistan through which counterterrorism, border security and confidence building measures can be raised and addressed.

Otherwise, the ripple effects of terrorism will be devastating for Pakistan, Afghanistan and the entire region.