Pakistan braces for continued tensions as Modi's third term begins

As India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the oath to begin a historic third term in office yesterday, he pledged to address the nation's rising income inequality and improve quality of life for average Indians.

Much of Modi's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, which won the recent elections, espouse right-wing, pro-Hindutva and pro-capitalist causes. But his BJP party suffered the most electoral setbacks in the process.

While the NDA coalition has a majority in the Lok Sabha with 293 seats, the BJP only secured 240, falling short of a sole majority. On the other hand, the opposition INDIA alliance led by the Congress Party made major inroads with 232 seats. This is in sharp contrast to the results of the 2019 election, when the BJP bagged 303 out of 353 seats won by the NDA in the 543-seat parliament.

The results hold significant implications for neighbouring South Asian states given India's economic clout, military dominance and influence in regional affairs.

One such country is Pakistan, which has a historical, geopolitical and ideological rivalry with India with bilateral relations characterised by hostility, suspicion and prolonged tensions.

So how will Modi's third term impact Pakistan?

Initial Pakistani optimism

Pakistan has consistently viewed Modi and his BJP's policies towards Islamabad as unacceptable and a roadblock to peace between the two nuclear-armed states.

Over the weekend, Islamabad once again urged for peaceful coexistence with its neighbour. But there have been years of issues.

Modi's firebrand Hindutva brand of politics, the BJP's revocation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution which granted the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir special status in 2019, human rights violations in the Indian-administered J and K territory and the targeting of Indian Muslims by Hindu vigilantes under Modi's watch has constantly irked Islamabad.

Similarly, Modi's response to the Pulwama attack of 2019, where he launched airstrikes on Pakistani territory over militants targeting Indian military personnel on the Jammu Srinagar National Highway, is considered by Pakistan as incontrovertible evidence of the BJP being an aggressive, majoritarian and expansionist party which will strike Pakistan over unfounded allegations of Islamabad sponsoring terrorism.

Adding to that is the Modi government's attempt to diplomatically isolate Pakistan at forums such as the United Nations throughout its tenure.

These factors explain why Modi's losses in the recent elections were met with positive coverage in Pakistan. Islamabad equated Modi's truncated mandate with Indian defeating hate, with his party left at the mercy of Muslim-friendly allies.

The truncation is in part the result of the BJP failing to appeal to Muslim and rural voters in states such as Uttar Pradesh, which is home to the contentious Ram Temple built by the BJP and castigated by Pakistan as an insult to Muslim sentiments.

A partnership between the socialist Samajwadi Party and the Congress in UP amid youth discontent over the BJP's failed promises and increased economic marginalisation among Dalits also benefited Modi's opposition.

Similar results unfolded in West Bengal and Maharashtra, where in the latter's case, the BJP's alienation of traditional allies such as the far right Shiv Sena was one of many factors resulting in the party securing only nine out of the 48 seats in the state as compared to 30 for the INDIA alliance.

Despite Pakistan's initial optimism, Modi has retained power in 2024, which has significant implications on Islamabad's strategic thinking.

Bracing for impact

A third Modi term clearly indicates that the BJP's aggressive, anti-Pakistan, anti-Muslim orientation will continue.

As a result, Pakistan understands that peace with India will likely remain elusive. The government in Islamabad led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his party, the centre-right Pakistan Muslim League (N), has long advocated for amicable ties between Pakistan and India.

However, Islamabad’s current stance is that normalisation is possible only if the BJP stops human rights violations in Indian-administered Kashmir and prevents attacks by Hindu zealots against Indian Muslims.

The former, centrist Pakistan Tehreek I Insaaf government of Imran Khan was also averse to normalisation with New Delhi due to Modi's policies in Indian-administered Kashmir, which is a focal point of Pakistan's foreign policy.

With Modi back in power, Islamabad will likely tread with caution and have a reactive foreign policy in place to counter Modi's aggression, either through diplomatic castigation or a military response should his government choose to attack Pakistan.

This strategy is based on precedent; in February, Pakistan’s Army Chief threatened to punish India over violating Pakistan's territory or fueling terrorism within the country. Similarly, on the diplomatic front, Pakistan has accused India of fomenting terrorism within Pakistan, sharing dossiers of evidence with the United Nations during Modi's second term.

With a thinner mandate in 2024, there is every chance that Modi would adopt anti-Pakistan rhetoric to unify Indians and challenge a more robust opposition led by the Congress Party in parliament. The PM already did so during the recent election, accusing opposition leaders Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi of supporting Pakistan.

Trade woes

Pakistan is currently grappling with challenging economic problems such as rising sovereign debt and inflation, but the prospects of resuming trading ties with the business friendly BJP remains bleak.

Officials in Islamabad say trade ties between the two countries have been suspended since 2019 due to the heavy taxes imposed on Pakistani goods by New Delhi. But the truth is that trade resumption is subject to the status of Indian-administered Kashmir under a Modi-led government.

India under Modi is also considered to be a state sponsor of terrorism by Pakistan - a factor which fuels animosity against India in Islamabad. The Guardian also backed Pakistan's claims that India was involved in targeted killings in the country in 2021. The suspicion is that such nefarious designs will continue.

Similarly, Modi's rhetoric on Balochistan, Pakistan's most restive and poverty-stricken province, will also prompt Islamabad to boost domestic counterterrorism operations against Baloch militants while propping up India's culpability in international forums.

What is clear however, is that Modi's rise as a pro- Hindutva, anti-Pakistan politician with a reduced mandate would result in a reactive foreign policy in Pakistan which is set to continue during his third term.