Terror group YPG/PYD's failed manoeuvres amid shifting dynamics in Syria

As the US presidential elections approach, the major players in Syria are reassessing their strategies and bolstering their positions. Rapidly changing power dynamics and overlapping strategic interests are pushing the protagonists to craft new policies.

Within this context, the PYD/YPG—the Syrian branch of the terror group PKK—is manoeuvring to reshape its position by attempting to gain political legitimacy and advancing its relationships with regional actors.

Terror legacy of PYD/YPG

The PKK—listed as a terrorist organisation by Türkiye, the US, and the EU—was established in the Marxist/Leninist model of party/front/army.

The PYD/YPG, created at the PKK’s eighth so-called congress, share the same methods and leadership. Despite having different names, the PYD/YPG is actually an offshoot of the PKK, aiming to promote separatism and terrorism.

The PYD/YPG’s rise in Syria after the 2010 uprisings known as the Arab Spring was marked by a significant spike in PKK violence inside Türkiye, with over seven hundred people killed in the fourteen months leading up to August 2012 – the highest level of PKK-related violence in thirteen years.

This period underscores the intertwined nature of the PYD/YPG and PKK, as the increase in terror activity in Syria coincided with escalating PKK violence in Türkiye.

On the other hand, the PYD/YPG itself has directly targeted Türkiye through attacks launched from northern Syria, posing a severe threat to the country’s national security.

Since 2016, there has been a significant increase in PYD/YPG attacks from northern Syria targeting Türkiye’s military units, temporary military installations, as well as civilians and public spaces within Türkiye’s borders.

In this context, the terror group has carried out over 1,000 attacks, including 94 within Türkiye’s borders and 718 directly targeting civilians. These attacks have resulted in the deaths of nearly 800 people, with at least 700 of them civilians. These attacks have also left more than 2,000 others wounded.

Through direct attacks and those carried out via the PKK, the YPG/PYD group targets Türkiye’s territorial integrity with its violent activities.

By expanding its military presence with external assistance, it aims to change the region’s demographic structure by displacing the Arab and Turkmen populations and preventing the return of Syrian civilians who have taken refuge in Türkiye. Its objective is to establish a terrorist state in the region, which aspires to include Türkiye’s southern region as well.

Failure to gain legitimacy

Despite its efforts to establish political legitimacy, the PYD/YPG has failed to achieve this result due to its connections with terror groups and extensive human rights abuses, including ethnic cleansing of Arabs and Turkmen, the recruitment of child soldiers, extrajudicial killings, and kidnappings.

The attempt to organise local elections in northeastern parts of Syria was aimed at gaining national and international legitimacy. However, the attempt failed after Washington opposed this initiative.

Additionally, Türkiye’s readiness to conduct military operations in response to such moves and its profound, unequivocal statements about targeting the PYD/YPG if elections were held contributed to the indefinite postponement — or, more accurately, cancellation—of the elections.

Consequently, the abandonment of the elections is a significant setback for the PYD/YPG. It undermined the group’s attempts to gain legitimacy, obstructing its quest to establish a terrorist state in the region.

Ankara’s influence

Washington’s objections to the PYD/YPG’s actions are multi-faceted.

Concerns about the group’s increasing rapprochement with the Assad regime prompted the US to stop the PYD/YPG from holding its proposed elections.

The potential incorporation of the YPG into the regime’s military structure as an autonomous unit is particularly troubling for Washington, given the long-term US investment in equipping and training these forces.

Ankara’s strong reactions to the PYD/YPG’s actions, coupled with indications of potential Turkish military intervention, have also influenced Washington’s decisions.

Türkiye’s determination to eliminate the PYD/YPG as a terrorist threat directly affects US strategic calculations.

While Washington has used the PYD/YPG as a proxy since the start of the civil war in Syria, the American reliance on a terrorist organisation in Syria is not a sustainable strategy and is clearly counterproductive.

Terrorist groups, often used as surrogates by global powers, can be easily manipulated.

Although this approach may wield some political and military influence in the short term, these non-state actors lacking legitimacy end up harming the international order.

Recently, the PYD/YPG has reached out to Russia, the Assad regime, and Iran to further its agenda, which runs counter to US interests in the region and proves that this terrorist entity cannot be a reliable partner.

Additionally, by engaging with this terrorist group, Washington has drawn strong reactions from Ankara, its exclusive NATO ally in the region, leading to significant disagreements between the two governments.

This divergence of views is contrary to the US's long-term interests and complicates its ability to achieve strategic objectives in Syria.

The PYD/YPG’s increasing tactical partnership with Iran has further complicated the situation.

Since the early stages of the Syrian civil war, the PYD/YPG has collaborated with Iran to occupy northern Syria.

This mutually serving relationship includes suppressing anti-regime Kurdish groups and limiting Türkiye’s influence in the region.

Tehran’s support for the PYD/YPG, including providing weapons and logistics, contrasts with the group’s alignment with US interests, creating strategic discomfort for Washington.

Moving forward

Despite Washington’s disillusionment with the PYD/YPG’s recent moves, it is unlikely that the US will completely sever ties with this proxy.

Washington’s measures, such as directing the PYD to cancel elections, signal its dissatisfaction with the PYD/YPG’s trajectory and serve as a reminder of the importance of aligning with US strategic interests.

Though the geopolitical landscape in Syria remains fluid, one thing remains certain: Ankara will not permit the formation of a terrorist state along its southern borders.

Ignoring Türkiye’s core interests will prove costly for any party attempting to do so.