Why did Emmanuel Macron call a snap election, and what's at stake?

President Emmanuel Macron has called for a surprise snap parliamentary election in France, after his party Renaissance was roundly beaten by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (NR) party in recent European Parliamentary elections.

With his decision to dissolve the National Assembly, Macron risks losing his majority in the chamber and allowing, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the far-right to formulate a government after the elections.

This is worrying for many reasons, not least because France has been against Russian influence in Europe. The Far Right, however, have been sympathetic to Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The rise of the National Rally has been sending worry through financial markets and could push French debt deeper into the danger zone. Also the victory of parties once on the fringes means that France could exit the EU.

Voters will head to the polls starting at the end of this month. The most likely outcome after two rounds of voting on June 30 and July 7th is a hung parliament, in which no party holds an absolute majority. At best, this could bring forth a German-style coalition.

At worst, it could produce more parliamentary deadlock, and potentially, in time, more elections.

Most people in France don't know why Emmanuel Macron has taken this gamble. The fact is, the French President hates losing and doesn't like being boxed into a corner.

Macron's logic

After the 2022 elections, Macron's camp and his coalition partners held a relative majority. This allowed the government to pass laws without a vote, using Article 49-3 of the constitution, or to seek broad political support in the chamber.

But as the far-right grew more popular and anti-government sentiment rose, the president's team is anticipating the disruption of parliamentary work.

So Macron chose to dissolve the National Assembly early because he was expecting a motion of no confidence to be adopted in parliament in the coming months over the next budget. His rationale is he might as well call for new elections now out of his own initiative as opposed to having to play defence in a few months time.

Macron also thinks elections in France will turn out very differently than the European elections. Yes, there is a lot of anger in France about the economy, the cost of living crisis, rising electricity bills and violence on the streets.

But it is one thing to be very angry and another to express it by supporting the Far Right and handing over power to Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. In Macron's opinion, the French are not ready to go that far yet.

The problem is, government parties have been betting on this for the past 20 years in France. Each time they have won the bet, but the margin in which they have won is getting narrower and narrower, and maybe it is going to disappear in the next few weeks.

By the numbers

According to a recent Harris Interactive poll, RN holds a significant lead with 34 percent of the vote, compared to the second-place coalition of left-wing parties NUPES, which has 22 percent.

The president's camp had the support of 19 percent of the people polled, and the conservative Republicans held 9 percent. This means that RN is projected to have a relative majority in the Assembly, with an estimated 235 to 265 seats compared to 89 in the previous legislature.

A win for the National Rally could result in another period of cohabitation, in which the president and prime minister come from opposing political camps. RN President Jordan Bardella is campaigning as the party's candidate for France's new prime minister.

France is a hyper-presidential-monarchical republic. This means Macron would retain a large manoeuvring space on foreign policy and defence even if the Far Right wins and get to "cohabitate" with the president. But whatever is left of his gravitas would be severely compromised.

Election strategy

Renaissance (Macron's party) is seeking to force other moderate parties to support a "republican front," in which the left, right and centre vote against the far right to achieve victory.

French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné has said that the party will not put up candidates against "republican" opposition contenders.

Macron knows the history of France, and that Jacques Chirac's decision in 1997 to dissolve parliament ended in tears for his administration amid five years of "cohabitation" with a Socialist government. But Macron also often thinks he can defy precedent, and pull off things that others cannot.

Still, at no point in France's history has the National Rally appeared so close to power, with more MEPs and members of parliament than ever, as well as opinion polls showing rising support for the French far right in new categories of voters. All eyes are on whether Le Pen can reverse her role as perennial runner-up in French presidential elections, and win in 2027.

The outcome of Sunday's elections means France, a founding member of the EU, will send to Brussels the largest contingent of far-right, Eurosceptic lawmakers among the 27-member bloc.

Decision time

The National Rally has traditionally done well in European elections, topping the vote in 2014 and in 2019. Its massive 15-point margin of victory on Sunday – up from just 1 percent five years ago – suggests both that Le Pen's party is at a historic high and that Macron's camp is in a position of unprecedented weakness.

The only Republican Front possible I can see is an alliance between the remaining Socialists (of Raphael Glucksmann), Macron's party and what remains of the democratic Right (les Républicains). Except, this alliance will most probably not materialise for logistical reasons.

Elections will conclude less than three weeks before the Paris Olympics are set to begin on July 26, in the presence of more than 100 heads of state.

President Macron is certainly a risk taker. Now the ball is in the French citizens' court. Will French voters stop flirting with the extremes? They should be careful what they wish for.

Unless the Left creates a strong coalition - as it is working to do - and wins the votes of the people, there is a strong likelihood that Frexit will be on the cards, with the future of the EU being in question.