With Aoun and Salam in charge, Lebanon dares to hope for a brighter future

The election of President Joseph Aoun this month in Lebanon could change everything.

Walking through Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport a day after the Parliament chose the former army general to lead the country, the atmosphere was palpably different. Photos of the new president adorned all digital media platforms around passport control.

A woman handed her passport to the General Security officer and instead of a simple greeting, said "mabrouk," meaning congratulations. The officer smiled.

Pride and joy were visible on the faces of people on the streets, and conversations among ordinary Lebanese shifted from despair to hope—overnight.

This abrupt change in national mood, after two years of a power vacuum in government, stems from the sense of nationalism and integrity that the election of Aoun evokes. His presidency is seen as a nod to Lebanon's past, specifically the Chehabist era, which many regard as a golden age of governance.

This period marked a clear departure from sectarian-driven politics marred by corruption and nepotism, ushering in state-building institutions and a rule-of-law framework.

The Chehabist era

In 1958, army general-turned-President Fouad Chehab was elected under similarly dire circumstances in Lebanon. His tenure focused on institutional reforms, infrastructure development, and uniting a fragmented nation under a vision of civic governance.

Chehab's presidency is often cited as the last time Lebanon saw effective governance based on merit, rather than sectarian favouritism. His reforms laid the groundwork for the Lebanese civil service, independent judiciary and other state institutions, which are now but a shadow of their former selves.

Many Lebanese hope that Joseph Aoun's presidency will revive the spirit of Fouad Chehab, especially in delivering justice to the victims of the August 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion.

After more than five years of political interference that stalled investigations, Aoun’s leadership has revived hopes for accountability and the rule of law.

Just one week after Aoun’s election, Judge Tarek Bitar, heading the Beirut port explosion probe, is set to issue summonses, ending a two-year obstruction by the former prosecutor general, Ghassan Oueidat.

In Lebanon, where executive decision-making lies primarily in the hands of the cabinet, a second reason for cheer arrived with the surprise nomination of Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam this week.

Salam, a former UN ambassador who just resigned as president of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to take up the PM job, is widely seen as an ideal candidate. His profile, steeped in international law and diplomacy, embodies a break from Lebanon's entrenched patronage politics.

Hezbollah's waning influence

In 2022, parliamentary elections brought a group of so-called change MPs onto Lebanon's political scene. Initially dismissed as fragmented and ineffective, this small group—including Mark Daou, Waddah Sadek, and Michel Doueihi—proved their critics wrong by rallying the opposition to back Nawaf Salam as prime minister this week.

This coalition dealt a historic blow to Hezbollah and its candidate, Najib Mikati. For the first time in 25 years, Hezbollah's ironclad alliances have now begun to crack.

The group's long-standing partnerships with the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt's bloc have unravelled in dramatic fashion. Both FPM and Jumblatt's camp endorsed Salam, leaving Hezbollah and its ally, Amal Movement, politically isolated.

In an eleventh-hour manoeuvre, Aoun refused Hezbollah's request to delay consultations, giving the party barely an hour to respond. Faced with no viable options, both Hezbollah and Amal abstained from naming a candidate, further signalling their waning political influence.

While Hezbollah has portrayed its allies' decisions as a betrayal, the political reality suggests that the group is becoming increasingly marginalised. The once-dominant Shia duo, comprising Hezbollah and Amal, is losing its grip on Lebanese politics.

Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, Amal's leader, is even rumoured to have distanced himself from Hezbollah, aligning instead with Arab states opposing Iranian influence in Lebanon.

The loss of political leverage compounds Hezbollah's existing struggles. Its military arsenal and financial resources no longer guarantee dominance in a country yearning for reform, stability, and accountability.

Looming challenges

The new government faces immense challenges as it attempts to stabilise the country and address critical political, financial, and economic issues.

One of the most sensitive tasks is implementing UN Resolution 1701, which includes disarming militant groups and integrating Hezbollah into a political framework. This remains highly controversial, as any move toward disarmament risks potential clashes between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah, further exacerbating tensions.

Simultaneously, the government must ensure the smooth implementation of the ceasefire agreement and oversee Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, economically Lebanon is grappling with the aftermath of the 2019 financial collapse, marked by hyperinflation and the decimation of the banking sector. Stabilising the currency and appointing a capable central bank governor are crucial steps toward restoring financial order.

Rebuilding the banking system is equally urgent, as public trust in financial institutions remains at an all-time low.

Reconstruction efforts add another layer of urgency. Southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs require extensive rebuilding after the recent war with Israel, while the Port of Beirut remains a critical economic artery in need of rehabilitation following the devastating 2020 explosion.

The country's potential oil and gas resources present an opportunity for recovery, but these must be developed transparently to attract investment and generate sustainable revenues.

Lebanon also needs to rebuild trust with international allies, particularly Arab countries and Türkiye. All have historically supported the country. Securing their financial and political backing depends on the government's ability to deliver real reforms and demonstrate accountability.

New era

The elections of Joseph Aoun as president and Nawaf Salam as prime minister-designate signify a turning point for Lebanon. Despite facing immense challenges, this leadership duo enjoys broad support, even among the Shia community.

Privately, many in this community express hope for lasting peace and strong state institutions that can rebuild infrastructure, drive economic reform, and restore the rule of law.

The era of political exceptionalism and sectarian supremacy appears to be ending. For the first time in decades, Lebanon has a chance to pivot toward a future defined by unity, accountability, and governance rooted in national—not sectarian—interests.