Trump or Harris: PKK/YPG tensions weigh heavily on US-Türkiye relations

As the US presidential election approaches, the future of Türkiye-US relations hangs in the balance. Whether it’s Donald Trump or Kamala Harris who takes the helm, Ankara’s ongoing concerns—particularly regarding US support for the PKK-affiliated YPG in Syria—remain at the forefront of a tense diplomatic landscape.

The outcome of the election will determine not only the tone of US-Türkiye relations but also the potential course of critical issues such as regional security, counterterrorism, and military cooperation.

Long-standing geopolitical dynamics, particularly those involving ongoing conflicts in Türkiye’s immediate neighbourhood, are expected to shape the relationship between Washington and Ankara, the two NATO allies.

However, experts remain skeptical about a major shift in bilateral relations. While the US presidential candidates’ approaches differ, deeper geopolitical dynamics will continue to play a central role in shaping US-Türkiye ties.

The Syria issue

Among the most contentious issues straining the alliance is the US’s support for the YPG, the Syrian extension of the PKK. Both Washington and Ankara officially classify the PKK as a terrorist organisation, but the US has worked with the YPG as a partner in the fight against Daesh.

Ankara has repeatedly expressed frustration over the US working with the YPG, stating that using one terrorist group to fight another is counterproductive. Türkiye shares a border with Syria.

Despite these differences, Türkiye’s strategic role in the region is undeniable.

“Türkiye’s geographic proximity to the wars in its north and south, its efforts to end these wars, and the positions that Türkiye and the US take in these conflicts will remain key factors in shaping the future of Turkish-American relations,” says Aylin Unver Noi, a professor of international relations at Haliç University in Istanbul.

Trump and Türkiye

Donald Trump’s presidency saw moments of both tension and cooperation with Ankara. His decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria in 2019 gave Türkiye room to assert itself militarily but also created new complications in the broader US-Türkiye relationship.

Trump also took a more pragmatic stance on Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence systems, a move that had restrained ties between the two countries. While Trump did impose some sanctions on the S-400 issue, his overall approach was more transactional and sympathetic to Türkiye’s concerns.

Noi highlighted this point, noting that, “Trump’s potential return to the White House could revive positive bilateral engagements and boost security cooperation, particularly regarding Türkiye's role in counter-terrorism efforts in Syria.”

However, she also cautions that certain policy areas, such as US support for the YPG, might not be easily swayed by a change in leadership, given priorities within Washington.

Should Trump return to office, many experts wonder if his unorthodox style would open a new chapter or merely reignite old frustrations.

Despite Trump’s earlier move to pull US forces out of northern Syria, Washington’s support for the YPG has not shifted substantially.

Harris and the perpetuation of Biden policies

In the other scenario, if Kamala Harris wins, there's expectation of a continuation of Joe Biden’s policies—an approach marked by strained ties and diplomatic caution.

Noi explains, “Harris, with her lack of independent foreign policy experience, is likely to continue Biden’s approach, particularly under the guidance of her advisor, Philip Gordon.” Gordon has long been a voice for managing Ankara delicately, especially when it comes to sensitive security concerns.

Under Biden, relations have been far from easy. Tensions over US support for the YPG in Syria and the unresolved issue of Türkiye’s purchase of Russian military systems have defined the bilateral rift.

As Noi points out, “Biden’s administration was initially reluctant to engage directly with Ankara, and more exchanges became possible only after Türkiye’s mediation efforts in the Ukraine war.”

“Both Trump and Harris’s advisors have stressed the need to avoid actions that could further divide Türkiye and the US over the PKK/YPG issue. However, it remains to be seen how US policy will evolve in light of the new realities that have emerged after Israel's war in Gaza,” Noi adds.

Harris, if elected, will face the challenge of how to reset these strained ties between the two capitals.

Security beyond Syria

The outcome of the US election could set the course for critical issues affecting Türkiye and the US.

Beyond Syria, defence relations are also on the table, with the F-16 modernisation deal and Türkiye’s role in NATO operations adding to the complexity of US-Türkiye diplomacy.

In 2023, after Ankara’s assent to Sweden’s inclusion into NATO, the US approved a $23 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye, a deal stalled since 2021. Türkiye’s focus turned to buying F-16s to upgrade its ageing fleet of American warplanes after the US removed the country from the F-35 programme.

Victoria Nuland of the State Department had announced that Türkiye would receive modernisation kits for its F-16s and hinted that Washington would be “delighted” to see Türkiye rejoin the F-35 programme. To unblock the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye, US officials have proposed a ‘soft’ decommissioning of the Russian missile systems.

“Türkiye expects the next US president to understand its national security concerns, particularly with the ongoing regional instability,” Noi concludes.

Türkiye’s role in regional stability

Türkiye’s strategic value cannot be understated.

Whether in Ukraine, where Ankara played a pivotal role in mediating prisoner exchanges and brokering the Black Sea grain deal, or in the volatile Middle East, Türkiye has positioned itself as an important mediator.

While tensions over the US support for the YPG may persist, Türkiye’s broader role in stabilising a volatile region ensures its continued importance on the global stage.

As former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once emphasised about the refugee crisis in the region, “Türkiye has borne the brunt of instability on its borders.”

This reality weighs heavily on Ankara’s expectations for the next US administration.