Türkiye elections: Who benefited most from political alliances in polls

The May 14 elections turned out to be a disappointment for Türkiye’s joint opposition, as it fell far short in both the presidential race as well as the parliamentary elections.

In the presidential race, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received 49.52 percent of the votes, placing him far ahead of his opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 44.88 percent. The Erdogan-led alliance also claimed a parliamentary majority.

Prior to the election, six ideologically different opposition parties – from Leftists to Turkish nationalists and conservatives – had come together to form the National Alliance under the leadership of the leftist Republican People’s Party (CHP). Some pre-election surveys even gave the opposition alliance an edge over the Erdogan-led People’s Alliance.

But the election results proved that the composition of the opposition alliance was not so attractive to the Turkish electorate as four conservative partners of the Table of Six – the Gelecek Party, Deva Party, the Saadet Party and Democratic Party – did not appear to deliver the votes expected from their political base to the Nation Alliance and Kilicdaroglu.

Small parties with big gains

However, these four parties won more deputies under the CHP list than what they could have won if they had contested the parliamentary election under their own party logos.

But in what appears to be a contradiction, the main opposition’s share of votes (25.3 percent) did not increase significantly compared to the 2018 elections (22.6 percent) despite the four parties’ declared support to the CHP.

According to the average of several pre-poll surveys, the total vote share of the four parties was projected at around 5 percent. But the CHP’s vote share appeared to increase only 2.7 percent.

Interestingly, despite their poor showing, the Gelecek Party, led by Ahmet Davutoglu, a former prime minister, won 10 MPs, while former finance minister Ali Babacan’s Deva Party claimed 14 deputies.

On the other hand, the Yeni Refah Party (YRP) under Fatih Erbakan won nearly three percent of the votes, more than the Deva and Gelecek parties combined. Meanwhile, Fatih Erbakan is the son of Necmettin Erbakan, the founder of the Milli Gorus movement, which once included Recep Tayyip Erdogan and some of his followers.

While the YRP, a part of the People’s Alliance which entered the parliamentary election under its own logo, won five deputies, Deva and Gelecek parties, which ran their candidates under the CHP list, won 24 deputies in total.

This is also true for the Saadet Party, which appeared to receive around one percent, according to pre-election surveys. But the party claimed 10 deputies, two times more than the YRP.

The Democratic Party, which appeared to receive much less than one percent, according to pre-election polls, also claimed three deputies in parliament, an unproportionate number of MPs compared to its actual votes in the Turkish electorate.

The unproportionate parliamentary success of these four opposition parties running under the CHP list was something which drew the attention of many political analysts.

‘Biggest pickpocketing in Turkish political history’

President Erdogan also commented on this issue after the elections.

“The CHP has been subjected to the biggest pickpocketing in Turkish political history, or, as they love it, the biggest concussion in history, through its partners with whom it entered the elections together,” he tweeted in Turkish.

The President added that Kilicdaroglu had been conned “by his friends at the table”, a reference to the alliance’s nickname of ‘Table of Six’.

If deputies of four conservative parties elected under the CHP list leave the main opposition, as some believe, Kilicdaroglu’s party will have only 130 MPs, a worse outcome for the country’s oldest political bloc than the 2018 election when it received 146 deputies.

Winning ticket

The May 14 elections showed the reliability of Erdogan’s nationalist and conservative allies ranging from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to the YRP, the Buyuk Birlik Party (BBP), a nationalist party, and Huda-Par, a movement with a stable base in Türkiye’s southeastern and eastern regions.

A simple addition of votes from these parties showed that Erdogan, a skilful politician with strong conservative credentials, made the right math, unlike Kilicdaroglu.

While the People’s Alliance received 49.47 percent of the parliamentary votes, Erdogan’s AK Party won 268 deputies with 35.61 percent. The MHP, which has long been led by Devlet Bahceli, largely protected its vote share from 2018, proving many pollsters wrong and claiming 50 MPs.

The YRP also had a strong showing despite the fact that it was established just five years ago, while the BBP continued to retain its share of votes at around one percent. Huda-Par, which ran under the AK Party list, won four deputies.

As a result, the Erdogan-led People’s Alliance claimed a parliamentary majority with 323 deputies, including five YRP deputies out of a total of 600 MPs.

Losing ticket

On the other hand, Kilicdaroglu’s both conservative and nationalists allies had a poor showing in both the presidential and parliamentary polls on May 14.

While Kilicdaroglu added three more partners to the Nation Alliance, the opposition bloc received 35.02 percent of the votes, which corresponds to a barely one percent increase compared to the 2018 elections. The opposition expected to receive a parliamentary majority but was able to claim only 212 deputies.

While the CHP received a quarter of the total votes, a disappointing result for the main opposition, Kilicdaroglu’s nationalist ally Iyi Party could also not increase its votes, staying under 10 percent with 43 MPs.

The Green Left Party, under which the PKK terrorist organisation-linked HDP ran its deputies, received 8.82 percent of the votes. This showed a decline in the HDP’s support base, which received 11.7 percent votes in the previous election. The HDP had declared to support Kilicdaroglu’s presidential bid.