‘Türkiye’s exclusion from MED9 is a threat to Mediterranean cooperation’

The absence of Türkiye from the MED9 Summit raises questions about the effectiveness of Mediterranean regional cooperation, particularly on pressing issues like migration and the Cyprus dispute, experts say.

MED9, also known as EU Med, is a grouping of nine European Union member states that have interest in the Mediterranean. Formed in 2013, the MED9’s deliberations revolve around security and migration.

The member states met in Cyprus on Friday with a particular focus on the fallout of Israeli military air strikes on Lebanon and Syria on the flow of migrants.

Given Türkiye’s extensive Mediterranean coastline and its central role in the region's geopolitical and security dynamics, its exclusion from discussions that directly involve it presents a significant challenge to the legitimacy and viability of the group’s policy outcomes, experts say.

Excluding Türkiye from migration discussions reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of diplomacy, says Ismail Sahin, who teaches at Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University.

“Meaningful regional cooperation can only be achieved through inclusive dialogue, and without it, problems risk deepening, leading to heightened tensions,” he tells TRT World.

Türkiye's non-participation in such summits risks creating policies that are not only one-sided but also lacking the essential regional cooperation needed to achieve lasting solutions, experts warn.

Türkiye has been a critical actor in managing migration flows into Europe, particularly through the 2016 EU-Türkiye refugee agreement.

Serving as a primary transit country for migrants and refugees—especially for those fleeing conflicts in the Middle East—Türkiye has played a key role in stopping illegal migrants and preventing human trafficking.

Without Türkiye at the table, any Mediterranean migration policy would lack crucial input from the country most impacted by these movements, rendering such policies ineffective.

The Cyprus issue

Med9 Summit also discussed the issue of divided island of Cyprus.

The complex issue is tied directly to Türkiye. Since 1974, Cyprus has been divided between the Greek Cypriots in the south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Türkiye maintains a significant political and military presence on the island. Türkiye is also a guarantor power under the 1960 Cyprus agreements, meaning its cooperation is indispensable for any resolution regarding Cyprus’s future, security guarantees, or territorial arrangements.

Any negotiation on the reunification of Cyprus or territorial adjustments without Türkiye’s involvement are unlikely to yield realistic or actionable outcomes.

President of the International Economic Policy Research Association Recep Yorulmaz says Türkiye's also has a stake in the energy security in the Eastern Mediterranean.

No oil and gas project in the region can have legal or political legitimacy without Türkiye's participation, he says.

"Any meetings without Türkiye are a waste of time," Yorulmaz tells TRT World, adding that this is specially true in light of Türkiye's position as a NATO member.

Different countries including Israel and Greece are vying to secure offshore oil and gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. These countries often exclude Türkiye from transnational projects such as the proposed EastMed gas pipeline which seeks to transport gas from Israel to Greece via Cyprus.

In the backdrop of the energy crisis that Europe had to endure following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts say it’s all the more important for forums like Med9 to sit and talk with Türkiye.

Yorulmaz says that the swift resolution of energy disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean is not only in Türkiye's interest but also crucial for the EU’s energy security.

Blocking Türkiye

The actions of the Greek Cypriot Administration and Greece to block Türkiye’s inclusion in regional cooperation forums are also a source of tension, says Sahin of Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University.

Rather than contributing to solutions for Mediterranean challenges, these exclusionary tactics increase regional instability and complicate efforts to find effective resolutions, experts say.

Exclusion of Türkiye undermine the EU’s broader regional interests and weaken Europe’s security framework in the Eastern Mediterranean especially when it comes to resolution of territorial disputes.

Türkiye’s exclusion from MED9 raises broader concerns about the coherence and effectiveness of Europe’s Mediterranean policy.

As a NATO member and a key energy hub, Türkiye has a strong voice in disputes over maritime boundaries, gas exploration rights, and military deployments.

These issues not only affect Türkiye but also directly impact the interests of several MED9 countries.

In order to create actionable and sustainable solutions, it is imperative that the MED9 members and the EU at large seek Türkiye’s involvement either through parallel forums or broader EU mechanisms, says Sahin.

“Failure to do so risks not only exacerbating existing issues but also escalating tensions throughout the Mediterranean region, ultimately limiting MED9’s capacity to create lasting and comprehensive solutions.”