'Accurate' to say Gaza war could sink Democrats in US election — John Zogby

Washington, DC — With just four days until Election Day — that is when majority of American voters go to the polls and ballots are counted — US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are engaged in a final push for votes in battleground states that offer the key to the White House.

In all of the seven swing states, Harris and Trump are neck and neck, according to latest polls, and both sides are confident they will hit the 270-electoral-vote mark.

To discuss the current trends, TRT World's Baba Umar spoke with John Zogby, a globally-renowned American public opinion pollster, author, co-founder of the Arab American Institute and founder of John Zogby Strategies.

John, also dubbed the "Prince of Polling", has spent the past 40 years as one of the most accurate pollsters in the world, polled in 80 countries, worked with governments, the UN, and the fortune 500 companies.

His latest book, Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, offers understanding about polls and what they can reveal about public opinion.

TRT World: In the swings states, both Harris and Trump have led each other with small points during the past few months? Are we going to see a nail-biter? Do you think it could even come down to just few 100 or few 1000 votes in these states?

John Zogby: The race is essentially tied in all of the seven battleground states. It certainly looks like it could stay that way and take a while to determine a winner.

Another scenario could be 1980 and 2012, when a few days before the election, the dam bursts and last-minute undecided voters break big one way or the other.

In 1980, they (voters) broke away from the incumbent Jimmy Carter and toward the challenger Ronald Reagan. In 2012, it was the opposite with a big break toward the incumbent Barack Obama against Mitt Romney.

I still do not see any clue as to how 2024 will turnout.

If Trump or Harris are defeated by a small margin, will they or their allies accept the verdict? Are there chances of a political violence similar to the one we saw in January 2021?

We will be doing our final poll this weekend and asking that very question. I think there is already some evidence that elements from either side will not accept the results, especially if the race is close.

Some analyst say Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu might win the next election for his war on besieged Gaza, but the same war could sink Democrats, especially in the states likes Michigan. Is it a fair assessment?

I believe this is accurate.

While Bibi (Netanyahu) is not popular and the families of the hostages are rallying against him, there is the question of who is popular and capable enough to take his place.

Harris risks losing many younger voters, progressives, and Blacks because she has not been willing to split from Biden's war policy.

She and the Democrats have really alienated Arab Americans and Muslims who could be decisive in those states.

Recent surveys show Arab Americans slightly preferring Trump over Harris. Then there are third party candidates like Jill Stein and Cornel West who have found support among angry Arab or Muslim voters. Add uncommitted voters to the list too. Are these factors major spoilers for Democrats?

These are all major potential spoilers. It was our John Zogby Strategies poll for the Arab American Institute that showed Trump with 42 percent to 41 percent for Harris, 12 percent for Stein (much higher than her average of 1 percent nationwide).

Arab Americans have been voting overwhelmingly Democrat since 2004 as a protest against then President George W. Bush's war in Iraq and the revelations at Abu Ghraib prison.

So, this "protest vote" potentially going to Trump, Stein, or West actually comes from what was a Democratic vote bank?

There are certainly Arab American Republicans and independents, but Arab American Democratic leaders are already indicating that they will not encourage their colleagues to vote for Harris.

And, do you think Democrats and Harris campaign may have factored in these challenges and are still taking a big gamble here?

I just do not think they understand how important losing this vote can be. I think they know the numbers but it is baked into the cake that they cannot risk losing the Jewish vote.

Thus, they continue to insult Arab Americans.

Are there particular demographics, such as younger or minority voters, who feel more motivated or disillusioned about voting in 2024?

Young voters in general are distrustful, especially in the Arab American community where they have a heightened awareness of being Arab and the role of colonialism in US policy.

Could these last four days change anything? For example, an event, an expose', any campaign talk. We saw Trump seizing on Biden's "garbage" remarks, and Harris ally Bill Clinton told a gathering in Michigan that Israel is "forced" to kill Palestinian civilians.

Have both Biden and Bill become electoral liabilities?

The level of Arab American anger in Michigan, in particular, is intense — especially among those who have voted for and worked for Democrats in the past.

Bill Clinton's remarks were insulting and not productive.

I do believe, with no polling numbers, that the damage done among Puerto Ricans by Trump's comedian (who called Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage") may prove to be more decisive that Biden's words (who called Trump supporters "garbage", a remark reportedly altered by White House later in official transcript).