Gaza war looms over US-Türkiye relations as Trump returns to power

Ankara is observing Donald Trump’s return to the White House with cautious optimism.

Trump’s first term saw unprecedented personal rapport with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With his comeback, hopes are high for a renewed line of dialogue between the leaders of two NATO allies.

“Under Joe Biden, US-Türkiye relations hit a historic low,” US historian Isil Acehan tells TRT World, insisting that relations can only improve from here.

Yet, geopolitical realities have changed since Trump’s last tenure, raising questions about how the two countries with differing interests will navigate new and lingering tensions.

‘The hold in the north’

Washington’s support for YPG, the Syrian offshoot of the PKK terrorist group, remains a major point of contention.

Despite recognising the PKK as a terrorist group, responsible for the deaths of 40,000 people, the US has long legitimised its presence along Türkiye’s borders under the guise of combating Daesh.

In 2019, Trump announced his decision to withdraw some of the US troops stationed in Syria after a phone call with Erdogan, effectively facilitating Türkiye’s counterterrorism operations against the PKK and YPG.

Trump’s decision saw major backlash from US officials.

“It was a partial withdrawal in the end, but at least we saw that he can go against the advisers, the ministers,” says Acehan, who works at the Türkiye Research Foundation (TAV), suggesting Erdogan’s rapport with Trump could again influence US position on the issue.

But regional realities have since shifted, particularly with Israel’s ongoing ground and aerial attacks on Gaza, which has killed over 43,000 Palestinians and destabilised countries in Türkiye’s neighbourhood. Experts say Tel Aviv is looking to expand its war.

“Israel's next goal is Lebanon, and then Syria,” says Zeynep Coskun Koc, a strategic consultant in MENA political economy and foreign affairs, warning the plan could destabilise the region and US-Türkiye relations further.

She adds that Washington’s unwavering support for Israel, driven by entrenched Zionist lobbies, ensures its continued involvement in the region.

“The US is not just complicit. It is actively fighting this war, and that means they're not going to get out of Syria,” Koc tells TRT World, stressing that the US has been supplying Israel with weapons and intel since October 7.

A US withdrawal would inevitably set Israel up to lose its two crucial allies in the region: Washington and the PKK/YPG terrorists, which remain aligned with Israel to undermine Türkiye’s territorial integrity.

Beginning with the terrorist group’s establishment around the 80s, the PKK has had close ties with Israel. “It's always been cultivated, and it will be sustained now, too,” Koc says.

“Israel wouldn't want to lose its hold in the north (Syria) while trying to attack from the south (Lebanon).”

Dominating the airspace

Israel’s influence also looms over Türkiye’s potential return to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Programme (JSF), a multilateral initiative to produce advanced stealth fighter jets.

Türkiye, a key contributor to the project since 2007, was removed from the programme in 2019 under Trump’s presidency after Ankara decided to buy the Russian S-400 missile system.

Washington claims the S-400 system could compromise NATO security and the stealth technology of F-35s, but Ankara insists there is no technical conflict.

“Trump's tendency to disregard NATO might be helpful in this case,” Koc notes, adding that he could be more willing to let the matter take shape without forcing Türkiye to dismantle the Russian system.

Erdogan has previously demanded reimbursement for Türkiye’s investments in the F-35 programme if reinstatement isn’t possible. Yet, Koc remains sceptical.

“I don’t think anybody anticipates Trump returning any kind of money to any nation,” she says, suggesting that Türkiye’s only viable option would be to rejoin the programme.

However, even with NATO concerns out of the picture, that route faces significant resistance – particularly from Tel Aviv and the Zionist lobby.

“Israel aims to remain the only Middle Eastern power with access to the F-35s,” Koc explains. “The US is heavily invested in supporting Israel’s air defence, and allowing Türkiye access to F-35s would complicate those efforts.”

Despite these challenges, Türkiye has emerged as a formidable force in the defence industry. It leads the global unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) market and is developing its indigenous fifth-generation fighter jet, KAAN, set for delivery by 2030.

Plans for a sixth-generation model are also underway.

Little space for pro-Türkiye voices

The prospect of improved US-Türkiye relations with Trump’s return presents both challenges and opportunities.

MENA expert Zeynep Coskun Koc notes that Washington’s political elite, heavily pro-Israel and often anti-Türkiye, leave little room for pro-Türkiye voices – a trend unlikely to shift with Trump’s anticipated team of advisors.

Trump’s nomination of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel underscores this point. Huckabee, a vocal supporter of illegal Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, has previously rejected the term “occupation” and dismissed the existence of Palestine.

Trump also picked Republican Representative Mike Waltz, who has called the withdrawal of troops from Syria a “strategic mistake,” as his national security adviser.

Isil Acehan echoes this sentiment, noting that while Trump’s friendship with President Erdogan has been a positive dynamic, it has unsettled key figures in his previous term, including his National Security Advisor John Bolton and National Defense Secretary James Mattis.

However, even during periods of crisis, such as Trump’s threat to destroy Türkiye’s economy, channels of communication remained open—a factor that both analysts believe could foster a baseline for diplomatic engagement and better relations.

The indispensable negotiator

Türkiye’s ability to mediate regional conflicts could gain significant traction under Trump’s leadership.

US historian Acehan highlights Trump’s unconventional engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his first term, suggesting that his rapport with both Putin and Erdogan could play into Türkiye’s balancing act between Washington and Moscow.

She suggests that Trump’s rapport with these leaders could further strengthen Türkiye’s role as a mediator in the Ukraine war, where it has already brokered the landmark grain deal.

Erdogan, who welcomed Trump’s election victory, has expressed willingness to play the role of peacemaker in Ukraine and Gaza. With Trump’s promise to bring costly conflicts to a quick end, Türkiye is poised to leverage its unique status as a stable actor in an increasingly volatile region.

“Türkiye has become perhaps the only reliable country in the region. It’s increasingly becoming a more important international actor,” Acehan says.

“With no other powerful figures in the region, Erdogan stands out.”

The matter of F-16s

The stalled sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye might be resolved under Trump's watch, experts say.

Congress previously tied F-16 sales to Türkiye’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership, which Ankara granted earlier this year. Yet, the deal remains in limbo.

Koc argues that Trump’s control of both Congress and the Senate could unlock this impasse.

“Trump can whip votes in Congress and push military trade deals through,” she notes, adding that F-16s face fewer geopolitical hurdles than the F-35 programme, as they avoid entanglements with Israel or NATO interests and are not fifth-generation aircraft.

“Trump’s emphasis on NATO members increasing defence spending also plays into this dynamic,” Koc says, highlighting mutual benefits for US economic interests and Turkish defence capabilities.

There is potential for progress in trade relations beyond defence. Trump is a businessman at heart, and his focus on trade deals could open avenues for economic cooperation, according to Koc.

While this might skew the trade balance in favour of the US, Koc notes that reviving trade dialogue would strengthen bilateral ties and mark a step forward.