Immigration vs Democracy: What's driving US voters to the polls in 2024

Washington, DC — A new survey has revealed a deep rift between Republican and Democrat voters over the most critical issues shaping the 2024 US presidential race.

Conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and presented at a Brookings Institution event in Washington DC on Wednesday, the survey of over 5,000 people shows Democrats prioritise the health of democracy, while Republicans place immigration at the top of their agenda.

"There are four (issues) that reach majority among Democrats, the health of our democracy (61 percent), increasing costs of housing and everyday expenses (57 percent), abortion (55 percent), and health care (52 percent)," Robert P. Jones, Founder and President of PRRI, said during the presentation.

This comes in contrast to what Republican voters prioritise; chief among them being immigration at 71 percent, economy at 69 percent, crime at 57 percent, and health of democracy at 51 percent.

Although Republicans and Democrats came relatively close on the issue of the health of democracy, Jones said that both sides "mean something very different by the health of our democracy."

Jones highlighted that the Republicans' top issue, immigration, has taken a massive leap since the last election. It was 38 percent in 2020, marking a 33 percent jump.

He said that the issue of immigration used to be approached pragmatically, but now it has become an ideology, saying, "Between 2020 and 2024 is a move from the wall to the enemy within."

The survey also highlighted another asymmetrical division among both sides, showing that the majority of Republicans and Democrats would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on immigration and abortion, with Republicans setting at 59 percent for immigration and Democrats setting at 56 for abortion.

Worlds apart

In the grand scheme, a crushing 94 percent of Republicans believe things are going in the wrong direction, compared to only 41 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents.

Breaking down the voting by ethnicities and religious affiliation, voters again differed massively if the election was held today.

Among those likely to vote for Kamala Harris, 83% are Black Protestants, 70% are unaffiliated, 67% follow other non-Christian religions, 61% are Hispanic Catholics, and 58% are Jewish.

On the other hand, Donald Trump’s support comes from 81% of White Evangelical Protestants, 61% of White Catholics, and 60% of White non-Evangelical Protestants.

The only issue on which all sides are almost aligned is the In Vitro Fertilization, or IVF, setting at 88 percent among Democrats, 86 among independents, and 85 percent among Republicans.

The sleeper issue

Although the US foreign policy issue wasn't included in the survey, Bulwark Columnist AB Stoddard said that a majority of independent voters thought America's reputation had fallen significantly over the past four years.

"America's reputation has changed for the worse in the last four years. 65 percent! America's reputation around the world! This is a stunning statistic," Stoddard said during the discussion that followed the presentation.

Stoddard said it was "depressing" that 65 percent of independents, who are less tribal than Democrats and Republicans, concur with that.

US' reputation has taken significant hit, especially since the start of Israel's carnage in besieged Gaza, in which many argue Washington is complicit due to its support for Tel Aviv in its genocide.

Arab and Muslim Americans have cautioned Democrats against taking their votes for granted, warning of potential electoral fallout. Many are already withholding support, frustrated by both parties' alignment on Washington’s Israel policy — one of the few issues where Republicans and Democrats find rare consensus.