N Carolina in play as Trump and Harris make last-minute push in swing state

Washington, DC — With election day around the corner, Rachel Byrd, a mid-30s resident and voter of North Carolina's capital Raleigh, finds herself in the same bind as so many others.

"It's just hard to see the difference anymore," Rachel told TRT World. "One talks about opportunity (Harris) and the other about jobs (Trump), but in the end, it feels like noise. Sometimes I wonder if it's about us anymore or just about the next headline."

Rachel, like many voters, is swayed by the day-to-day struggles she's seen in her neighbourhood — a blend of working professionals and families struggling to keep up with rising costs.

"What I want is someone who gets that the price of groceries and the fear of sending our kids to school are more than campaign lines," she said, her expression a mix of frustration and hope.

As the US presidential race comes to its conclusion, focus is growing on North Carolina, a state that usually does not flip blue but has become a nail-biter in these consequential elections.

With one in every four voters Black and a growing wave of younger, more progressive electorate, North Carolina is turning into a crucial battleground state.

Currently, former US president Donald Trump is slightly leading in North Carolina, a state that has swung Democratic only twice in the last 50 years, yet the latest polls show a close margin.

A CNN/SSRS survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight 48 percent - 47 percent lead, though most polls give Trump the edge, with Fox News finding him up 49 percent - 47 percent and other surveys showing similar, slim leads.

The FiveThirtyEight average has Trump up by just 1.3 points, underscoring the Tar Heel state's precarious balance.

'Voters worry about rising food costs'

Gladys Mitchell-Walthour, political science professor at North Carolina Central University, pointed to the way Trump's narrative is pushing Republican voters on hot-button issues like the economy.

"Trump has used wedge issues like immigration to appeal to his base," she explained to TRT World. "At the same time," Mitchell-Walthour noted, "voters worry about rising food costs."

In terms of strategy, she said that Harris has played up a warm, hopeful persona, creating a clear contrast with Trump’s polarising style.

"Harris is aiming for a serious but joyful tone, one that appeals to her base and undecided voters," the noted academic said.

During a September rally in Greensboro, Harris cautioned that she's the underdog, urging her supporters to mobilise.

"She’s pushing herself as an optimistic but serious leader," said Mitchell-Walthour.

'Rural and suburban areas tilt heavily Republican'

North Carolina is changing, agrees David Schultz, a distinguished professor at Hamline University.

"The state has traditionally leaned Republican. However, N Carolina is rapidly moving towards becoming a Democratic state. It's happening because its population is getting younger, better educated, and more racially diverse," he told TRT World.

Schultz, who is also the co-editor of "Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter", a book that answers why some states swing in presidential elections, pointed out that the famed Research Triangle — where cities like Raleigh and Durham are located — has become a hub for young professionals, drawn by reputed universities like Duke, North Carolina State, and UNC Chapel Hill, who are coming in and putting down roots.

"This demographic shift is reshaping the state," he explained. "But outside major population hubs, rural and suburban areas still tilt heavily Republican."

Efforts to engage voters have also surged, particularly among North Carolina's Black communities, which could prove decisive in urban areas such as Raleigh, Durham, Charlotte, and Greensboro.

Mitchell-Walthour highlighted the high levels of student engagement at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (or HBCUs).

"There's been a wave of Souls to the Polls initiatives, and Black Greek organisations are deeply involved," she said, adding that community organisations like The Links Inc. and Jack and Jill of America have rallied Black voters in big cities.

"This turnout among Black Americans, particularly in urban areas, could swing things for Harris."

All eyes on the turn out

With the economy and immigration on most people's minds, both presidential candidates are digging deep.

Schultz pointed to the power of specific issues for each side.

"For Democrats, abortion and democracy are at the forefront. For Trump's supporters, it's immigration and inflation — the price of petrol, groceries — these are driving voter sentiment."

Schultz noted that this election may ultimately hinge on who shows up: "Harris needs suburban women, especially those who are college-educated, as well as young voters under 30. If they turn out in strong numbers, it could make all the difference."

Trump, meanwhile, is relying on rural, suburban and core Republican voters to turn out in strong numbers.