Why Georgia and Pennsylvania hold keys to the White House

As the 2024 US presidential race enters its final months, two battleground states are attracting the most attention: Georgia and Pennsylvania.

With the latest polls showing a virtual deadlock between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the race remains tight, and these swing states could decide who gets the keys to the White House.

David Morgan, a Democratic voter from Philadelphia, told TRT World that he feels Harris is in a good position to take Pennsylvania.

"She's doing well with suburban women, young people, and minorities. She's got a real shot here if the turnout is strong. The problem is Trump's base in the rural areas — they're still loyal to him. But I believe people in this state are ready for change. They want someone who can get things done."

This optimism is shared by many Democrats in Pennsylvania, but they are not getting comfortable just yet.

According to a recent CNN poll, Harris and Trump are tied at 47 percent among likely voters in the state, with 16 percent still undecided or considering changing their minds.

The undecided voters represent a critical segment, and both campaigns are aggressively courting them as election day looms closer.

Rachel Williams, a senior political expert based in Washington, DC, agrees that the race is far from decided.

"We are seeing a classic toss-up scenario in Pennsylvania. It's anyone's game at this point. Both campaigns are hitting the ground hard to lock in those undecided voters, but it's going to come down to who can pull off a stronger ground game in the final weeks," Williams told TRT World.

Georgia presents a similar picture of electoral suspense. CNN poll shows Harris narrowly ahead, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting her, compared to 47 percent for Trump.

However, 12 percent of voters in Georgia remain undecided or open to changing their minds, which keeps the race unpredictable. Given the closeness of the 2020 election, where Biden won Georgia by just under 12,000 votes, both campaigns know they must maximise turnout.

Samantha Sanchez, a Republican voter from Atlanta, is firmly in Trump camp.

"The economy was thriving under Trump. Petrol prices were low and the stock market was booming. That's what people here care about. Harris has no real solutions for the economy, and her policies are too liberal for most Georgians. Most of us are passionate about Trump, and that’s going to push him over the line here," Sanchez told TRT World.

Base loyalty

This loyalty among Trump's base is echoed in the poll numbers.

White voters without a university degree in Georgia strongly back Trump, with around 70 percent of them supporting him.

Harris, meanwhile, holds a lead among the younger demographic and Black voters, two groups her campaign is depending on to deliver the state once again for the Democrats.

However, concerns about voter turnout remain. While Harris is leading among Black voters, there is anxiety about the level of motivation in these communities. Only 61 percent of Black voters in Georgia say they are "extremely motivated" to vote, compared to 70 percent of white voters.

In Pennsylvania, that gap widens even further, with just 56 percent of Black voters expressing high motivation, compared to 72 percent of their white counterparts. This could be a critical factor if Harris hopes to repeat Biden's success.

Williams points out that this election isn't just about the base — independents and swing voters could also make a difference.

"There's still a lot of fluidity in this race, especially with so many undecided voters. In both states, you have significant gender gaps, with Harris doing better among women and Trump dominating with men."

"Harris's lead among suburban women in Georgia and Pennsylvania is important, but Trump's support among white working-class men is hard to ignore. Both campaigns will need to focus on persuading those voters who haven't fully made up their minds."

Intense battle

The ground game in both states is likely to intensify in the final weeks, with door-to-door canvassing, rallies, and targeted digital advertising aimed at swaying undecided voters.

Georgia, in particular, could see a surge of campaign events, with both candidates planning visits in the coming weeks to energise their bases and make last-minute appeals to swing voters.

Sanchez believes Trump's message of economic recovery is going to resonate strongly.

"Inflation, petrol prices, crime — those are front and centre. Harris might have some appeal with women, but at the end of the day, the economy is what people will vote on. And Trump's got the record to prove it."

But Democrats like Morgan remain hopeful that Harris can secure a win by focusing on social issues and restoring stability to the country.

"Trump's chaos is what cost him the White House in 2020, and it could cost him again. People are tired of constant scandals. Harris offers a steady hand, and I think that's going to appeal to voters who want to move forward."

As both campaigns head into the final stretch, it's clear that Georgia and Pennsylvania are firmly in the spotlight. With margins this razor-thin, every vote will count, and the outcome is far from certain.

Analyst Rachel Williams sums it up: "Neither candidate has a clear advantage in the swing states. What we're seeing is a true toss-up, and it's going to come down to the wire. Georgia and Pennsylvania will decide the next president, and it's anyone's game."