Modi's party ahead in early Indian election count, facing strong opposition

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist party showed a lead Tuesday, according to early figures reported by India's Election Commission, but was facing a stronger challenge from the opposition than had been expected.

The counting of more than 640 million votes cast over the past six weeks in the world’s largest democratic exercise was expected to take all day, with Modi widely expected to be elected to a third five-year term when the final result is declared.

If the 73-year-old Modi wins, it would only be the second time an Indian leader has retained power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.

Some four hours into the counting, early leads reported by the Election Commission showed Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party comfortably ahead of the main opposition Congress party.

The preliminary figures showed the BJP ahead in 240 constituencies out of 542 and winning one uncontested race. Congress was leading in 94 constituencies.

Modi's National Democratic Alliance group was leading in 287 constituencies, while the opposition INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party and its main campaign leader, Rahul Gandhi was leading in 225.

The Election Commission does not release data on the percentage of votes tallied, but counting was to go on throughout the day and early figures were expected to change.

The six-week-long election was seen as a referendum on Modi.

If the 73-year-old wins, it will only be the second time an Indian leader has retained power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.

Exit polls on Saturday by major television channels projected a comfortable win for Modi's right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] and its alliance called NDA over a broad opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A led by the Congress party and its main campaign leader, Rahul Gandhi.

Across seven phases

Nearly 970 million people, more than 10 percent of the world's population, were eligible to vote. Turnout was around 66 percent on average across the seven phases, according to official data.

The tallying of votes at counting centers in each of the 543 constituencies where polls were held could stretch in to the evening before a final result is declared by the Election Commission of India.

BJP-led alliance NDA was leading in majority 272 seats out of total 543 in early counting trends.

In his 10 years in power, Modi has transformed India's political landscape. His popularity has outstripped that of his party's, and has turned a parliamentary election into one that increasingly resembles a presidential-style campaign.

The result is that the BJP relies more and more on Modi's enduring brand to stay in power, with local politicians receding into the background even in state elections.

But a decade of his leadership has also left the country deeply divided. Modi's brand of politics has bred intolerance, hate speech, and brazen attacks against the country's minorities, especially Muslims, who comprise more than 14 percent of the population.

Ultra-nationalist politics

India's economy, one of the fastest-growing, has become more unequal under Modi. While stock markets reach record highs and millionaires multiply, youth unemployment has soared, with only a small portion of Indians benefitting from the economic boom.

As polls opened in mid-April, a confident BJP initially focused its campaign on "Modi’s guarantees," highlighting the economic and welfare achievements that his party says have reduced poverty. With him at the helm, "India will become a developed nation by 2047" Modi repeated in rally after rally.

His opposition, the I.N.D.I.A. grouping has attacked Modi over his ultra-nationalist politics. It focused on simmering economic discontent, and its campaign has rallied around issues of joblessness, inflation and inequality.

The alliance has also claimed they’ve been unfairly targeted, pointing to a spree of raids, arrests and investigations against their leaders by federal agencies they say are politically motivated. The government has denied this.

Another victory would cement Modi as one of the country's most popular and important leaders. It would follow a thumping win in 2019, when the BJP won 303 out of 543 parliamentary seats.