Why a Trump term holds special promise for Israel

On November 7, as America’s presidential election concluded, a celebratory spirit gripped Israel, where Donald Trump’s potential return to power raised hopes among supporters of his pro-Israel policies.

Billboards in Tel Aviv and occupied Jerusalem featured a grinning Trump alongside the message: “Congratulations! Make Israel Great Again!”—an endorsement from the “Friends of Zion,” a museum dedicated to “telling the stories of Jews and non-Jews who together realised the dream of a Jewish national home.”

The billboards were particularly symbolic in Jerusalem, a city that most of the world considers occupied territory, as they captured the anticipation among many Israelis that Trump might once again become the “protector” of that dream, a title he has enthusiastically embraced.

As recently as July, the International Court of Justice reaffirmed that Israel’s occupation remains “illegal.” But it was in Jerusalem that Trump made one of his most controversial moves: relocating the US embassy there in 2020, defying decades of American policy and international law.

“If I don’t win this election,” Trump warned at a pro-Israel conference in September, “Israel will cease to exist in two years.”

Trump’s fear mongering targeting the Israeli audience seems to have reflected in some surveys.

According to a survey by Langer Research Associates and PORI (Public Opinion Research Israel), 58 percent of Israelis believe Trump would better serve Israel’s security than his opponent, Kamala Harris who accounted for a meagre 20 percent.

If they had a vote in the election, Israelis 54 percent of Israelis said they would choose Trump over Harris.

Actions beyond symbolic gestures

During his first term, Trump brokered the Abraham Accords, normalising Israel’s relations with Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco, and Sudan—a diplomatic breakthrough that bolstered Israel’s regional position and secured new partnerships.

By ending Israel’s diplomatic isolation in parts of the Arab world, the accords reinforced Israel’s position against common threats, particularly Iran, and gained new economic and technological partnerships.

In 2019, Trump disregarded decades of US policy and international consensus by unilaterally recognising Israeli sovereignty over Golan Heights, an area widely regarded by the international community, including the UN, as occupied Syrian territory.

This move proved to be especially convenient at the onset of Israel's escalation into Lebanon, as it allowed Israel to frame attacks from Hezbollah, one of the deadliest of them being in Golan Heights, as direct violations of its territory, the claimed sovereignty of which was endorsed by the US.

Overturning policies

Another hallmark of Trump’s tenure was his halt on US funding to United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the UN agency supporting Palestinian refugees. The US had long been UNRWA’s top donor, contributing about a third of its $1.1 billion budget.

The Biden administration in 2021 restored this funding only for it to be curtailed again this year when Israel passed a law banning UNRWA from operating within its borders, citing alleged ties to terrorism.

For Israel, a second Trump term is especially promising for Israel at a critical time in war, as he has proven to have a knack for reversing longstanding US policies on Israel set by every American president, Republicans and Democrats alike.

“Israelis still give Trump an awful lot of credit for his pro-Israel policies during his first term,” notes Ryan Bohl, a Middle East analyst at the RANE Network.

This is despite the former Democrat president Biden boasting ‘no administration has helped Israel more than he has’, and Kamala Harris in no way having fallen behind his opponent in voicing staunch support for US’s closest ally in the Middle East.

To ease off domestic pressure that has been mounting in light of anti-war campus protests, the Biden administration made some cosmetic policy moves by imposing sanctions on illegal Jewish settler organisations operating in the occupied areas of Palestine, a decision protested by Netanyahu.

The Trump administration will likely overturn this policy on illegal settlers, who represent a vital segment of the Israeli government’s base, according to Bohl.

“The Netanyahu government will expect that the Trump administration will avoid any substantial criticism over the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip,” Bohl tells TRT World, adding that Trump’s administration might support further annexations of the West Bank and Gaza.

Israel’s ambitions, however, are no longer confined to Palestinian territories. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently called for full annexation of the West Bank and Gaza, flatly rejecting the two-state solution.

Addressing an American evangelical audience at the Middle East Summit in Jerusalem, Smotrich stated that Israel should declare a Palestinian state an impossibility.

For Netanyahu, a Trump presidency could mean not just support for such annexations but also a freer hand in regional conflicts.

Former CIA Director Leon Panetta suggests that Trump might give Netanyahu a “blank check” in the Middle East, potentially enabling an “all-out war” with Iran.

The question, he added, is whether Netanyahu will “expand that war, go after Iran, or do things that basically create an even greater concern about whether or not the Middle East is ever going to resolve itself or be in constant conflict.”

“Whatever you do, whatever you want to do, whoever you want to go after, you have my blessing,’” Panetta said, describing Trump’s approach toward Israel.