Georgian vote was driven by economy. Not by foreign interference — expert

The contrast couldn’t have been starker.

The West is jubilant over pro-European Maia Sandy’s victory in Sunday’s presidential election in Moldova.

In the words of White House national security spokesperson John Kirby, the results show that democracy remains strong in Moldova.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proclaimed Moldovans have chosen a European future. The Austria-based Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) declared the elections were “well-managed”.

Sandy is Moldova’s incumbent president, and she was vying in the presidential run-off against Alexandr Stoianoglo, the leader of the Party of Socialists, which does not see joining the EU as a priority.

Just a few days ago, in another European country, Georgia, people chose the incumbent government of Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, the leader of the Georgian Dream party.

Georgia's results sent shockwaves through Europe’s US allies. European organisations questioned those election results, accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stooges of stealing the mandate, and Western pollsters now saying that the vote doesn't even make any statistical sense.

Both Georgia and Moldova are small former Soviet states that are on track to become part of the European Union. The EU and US had raised concerns about Russian interference in elections in both countries.

Yet, Moldova’s vote is accepted, and Georgia’s is being labelled as stolen. Why?

“More recently, it’s become something like forcing countries to choose between having relations with Europe and relations with Russia. It is particularly unhelpful in the case of Georgia,” says Ian Proud, a former British diplomat and analyst on West’s foreign policy.

“Actually, most elections are about domestic choice. People vote based on whether they think those in power will help them improve their livelihoods, keep them safe and grow their incomes,” he tells TRT World.

The response of the European Union leaders to Georgia’s election is “quite bizarre and very clearly an example of external meddling.”

The resurgence of EU interest in the eastern European country of Georgia comes at a time when Russia continues with its war on Ukraine, and Brussels is trying hard to strengthen its eastern flank.

It’s the economy, comrade

In 2008, Russia occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions of Georgia. That triggered a wave of pro-European support as people put up EU flags at their homes and expressed their love for the US when they came across American tourists.

But over the years, another reality began to take hold in the Georgian conscience. And that had nothing to do with anger over Russian aggression or prospects of a future more aligned with Europe. It was plain economics.

Under the government of the Georgian Dream party, which has been in power since 2012, the country has seen transformative economic growth that had nothing to do with the European Union, says Proud.

“Principally, it’s because of domestic investment, which has averaged 27 percent of GDP for years. This and domestic consumption have been the growth engine. Foreign investment might have started to flow in, but it is not the principal driver of economic growth.”

In 2014, Georgia and the EU signed the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement. European officials often cite the trade pact to highlight Brussels’s commitment to the economic prosperity of Tbilisi.

But Proud says the agreement hasn’t benefited Georgia as it imports much more from EU member states than it exports to them.

“Germany exports almost eight times more to Georgia than it imports from Georgia.”

This imbalance of trade, which puts Tiblisi at a disadvantage, is much more manageable in trade with former Soviet states, China, India and Turkiye.

Over the years, the EU has launched around 58 separate trade defence investigations against Georgia, looking to restrict imports of tyres, tinplate, tableware and wine.

“EU is saying, ‘Don’t side with Russia and Putin is bad’. But the Georgians are saying, ‘We just want more income for our families. We want our kids to go to school. We want health provision and the economy to continue growing,” says Proud.

The question of taking sides

Even before the elections, friction between the EU and Georgia had reached a new high. Earlier this year, the Georgian parliament passed a law that made it mandatory for media organisations and NGOs to register as foreign agents if they receive 20 percent of the funding from other countries.

EU officials dubbed the legislation “Russian Law”.

The law is one reason several news outlets have turned against the Georgian Dream party.

The claims of Russian interference and widespread manipulation in the parliamentary elections in Georgia were amplified by some of these media organisations.

The pro-western President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, who herself is a former French national, has also alleged that Russia influenced the election results. However, she refuses to give any evidence.

“To be completely honest, I think every government - the EU, the US and Russia try to influence small countries like Georgia. But when it comes to the vote, most voters probably are blissfully unaware of all that stuff.”

The Georgian Dream party leaders have taken a more nationalistic outlook on domestic politics and foreign relations in line with the policies of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

“Georgians didn't choose Europe. They didn't necessarily choose Russia,” says Proud.

“They chose the party that has been in power since 2012, which has actually delivered quite an impressive economic record in terms of growing the economy. I'm sure they would like this to continue.”