Claim and counterclaim: unpacking Putin's reaction to the terror attack

Last week in Krasnogorsk outside Moscow, 139 people were killed and over 180 injured in a terror attack. Authorities detained 11 people. Four perpetrators were reportedly captured in the frontier region of Bryansk en route to Ukraine and have been charged with terrorism and are in pre-trial detention until May 22.

Analysts say while the incident rocked the country amid opposition criticism over perceived security failures, Russia's President Vladimir Putin's reputation will likely not be heavily dented.

"Putin just won an election. It was a landslide victory in which he received 80 percent of the overall votes, and over 70 percent of the people actually voted. So one can say he has a fairly high approval rate in Russia," Muhammet Kocak, Assistant Professor at the Institute of Area Studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, tells TRT World.

The perception of Putin's domestic leadership is that he is a leader who is "energetic" and "up to the task", the Turkish academic explains.

Analysts say Putin's authority has not been impacted, as some Western reports say, suggesting it may galvanise Russia, which has been at war with Ukraine since February 2022.

"If anything, this will rally the Russian public behind the Russian President against the terrorists and those who commissioned the act of terrorism," Associate Professor Greg Simons, Turiba University (Riga, Latvia) tells TRT World.

Kocak believes Moscow may harness such anger "for its purposes of further 'securitising' Ukraine and further legitimising the war in Ukraine."

Despite some criticism over the almost 20-hour timeframe it took Putin to address the nation, Simons believes the leader's crisis management and communication strategy was vastly improved compared with 2000.

In that year, the Kursk, a large nuclear submarine, exploded and sank during naval manoeuvres in the Barents Sea, leading some Russian officials to claim NATO involvement.

Amid the emerging facts about last week's attack, Simons says, "Rather than rush to speak something and perhaps exacerbate the risk, Putin spoke in a very measured tone. Given the content of what he said, the formulation needed to be just right given possible domestic and international implications."

Putin's speech referred to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war amid disputed claims.

Kocak says Russia's leader outright blamed Ukraine, who rejected Russia’s claim, amid emerging reports that say Ukraine had no involvement in the attack.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry labelled the accusation a "planned provocation by the Kremlin to further fuel anti-Ukrainian hysteria in Russian society, create conditions for increased mobilisation of Russian citizens to participate in the criminal aggression against our country and discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the international community."

US security officials reportedly named the perpetrators as a specific arm of Daesh in Khorasan, described as a "historical area" incorporating swathes of Iran, Afghanistan and other Central Asian nations including Turkmenistan.

On Monday, a Kremlin Spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, called on the media to await the findings of their investigation.

He declined to certify whether the US warned Moscow on March 7 about a potential attack, insisting such information is confidential.

Kocak says there should have been communication between the American and Russian intelligence agencies and does not believe it will lead to a "tipping point" in relations between both countries.

Impact of terrorism

Kocak, whose PhD explored the 21st-century Türkiye-Russia nexus, draws comparisons to his own country, which he says has been an unfortunate target of terror groups. He describes how some terror events can be prevented while others are difficult to stop.

"Probably even though they (Russia) were warned by the US, through channels of intelligence," he says.

Following past events, Simons believes there is a reason to question the US' conduct.

"The US is somewhat frugal with the truth, which is proven again and again with Russia, and we can see their deception with respect to the ethnic cleansing in Gaza. The US, and then UK embassy issued a warning to their own citizens on March 7 not to go to mass events such as concerts in malls in the Moscow region," he tells TRT World.

Simons believes no such detailed information was provided to Moscow in light of claims in which he says US authorities are "openly bragging about killing Russians in Ukraine."

It leads him to question the trust following what he says is non-actionable US communications.

"Türkiye has had similar problematic dealings with the US in its support for Kurdish [PKK] terrorists in Iraq and Syria, so likely understand(s) the issue of lack of reliability and trustworthiness," Simons says.

On Monday, Russia's leader Vladimir Putin appeared to place blame for the terror incident on the Daesh affiliate, albeit linking Kiev with the incident and accusing the US of giving Ukraine a clean chit.

"We know that the crime was committed by the hands of radical Islamists whose ideology the Islamic world itself has been fighting for centuries. But we also see that the US, through various channels, is trying to convince its satellites and other countries of the world that, according to their intelligence data, there is supposedly no trace of Kiev in the Moscow terrorist attack, that the bloody terrorist attack was carried out by followers of Islam, members of the ISIS [Daesh] organisation banned in Russia," said Putin.

Amid disputed narratives in what analysts point to as informational warfare, Simons believes the Daesh claim of responsibility could be "a useful and convenient terrorist brand to use for plausible deniability by possible foreign sponsors of the act."

Some experts have questioned the political-religious nature of the emerging Daesh messages, with some purportedly appearing to show the alleged terrorists undertaking a shahada with their left hand - considered uncommon in Islam.

Nevertheless, Putin has underscored that he knew who "committed this atrocity," questioning who benefited from the attack while claiming there was a whole series of attempts by Kiev.

Russia’s leader said there are "attempts to enter and gain a foothold in our border territories" while citing numerous ways to achieve this.

"Bloody acts of intimidation such as the terrorist attack committed in Moscow quite logically fit into this series. The goal, as I already said, is to sow panic in our society and at the same time show our own population that all is not lost for the Kiev regime," he said.

Citing alleged Ukrainian attacks, including Belgorod, the Kerch bridge bombing, and the murder of Daria Dugina, Simons also questions the Ukraine accusation that this could be a "false flag operation."

With the terrorists reportedly heading to the "rather porous" Ukraine border, he suggests it points to "further circumstantial evidence. The Ukrainian embassy in Dushanbe has also been attempting to recruit citizens of Tajikistan for their military effort."

If the alleged connection is proven, Simons believes there could be likely significant repercussions for the Ukrainian political and military leadership, who may be treated as “legitimate targets”.

Putin also said people were following orders of "Western curators, (to) fight to the last Ukrainian, (to) obey the command from Washington and adopt a new law on mobilisation" before claiming those supporting Kiev are allegedly bidding to avoid complicity in terrorism.

According to Simons, "There could well be very serious implications for any possible foreign backers of this act of terrorism if it is proved".

However, while also mourning the loss of Russian life, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that last week's terrorist attack in Moscow is a reminder that Daesh "remains a real threat."

Impact on Muslim communities

Some Western reports suggest that Muslim minorities in Russia could face "a wave of repression".

However, Simons doubts Russian Muslims will face repression, insisting, "This is not the early 2000s anymore, and Russian Muslims are much more integrated into Russian society. For example, Chechnya and Ramzan Kadyrov are very supportive of the Federal State."

However, Kocak says a widespread clampdown on guest workers from Central Asian countries could be expected, and Russia could be more demanding in the area of security cooperation with Central Asian countries.

Countries like Tajikistan, which was previously the Soviet Republic, are today home to a large Muslim population, while around 1.5 million Tajiks have worked in Russia.

More broadly, with US elections set for later this year, experts believe the bids to discredit the Russian election, factoring in the nature and timing, are not merely coincidental.

According to Simons, "(The) US is going into a presidential election in November 2024, Biden does not want to be seen as 'losing' the Ukraine War before that, the mysterious death of Navalny on the eve of the elections, and attempts to incite disorder during the election days (flash mobs and acts of disruption). This is how political warfare is waged.”