Fall of Avdiivka: Is Russia gaining upper hand in the Ukraine conflict?

In a significant turn of events on the eastern front of the Russia-Ukraine war, Kiev withdrew troops from the Donetsk region on February 17 following intense fighting, which saw Ukrainian soldiers run out of ammunition.

Avdiivka, a Ukrainian town in the east, fell after enduring a months-long Russian assault that involved thousands of soldiers and tanks.

The loss of the town, which Russians call Avdeyevka, marks Russia's most significant battlefield gain since seizing Bakhmut in May 2023.

The Russian victory comes almost two years after President Vladimir Putin initiated a full-scale offensive by sending troops into Ukraine on February 24 2022.

Here’s what the experts say about the fall of Avdiivka and its impact on the wider war.

A shifting frontline

Avdiivka, a city in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, has been described as a "gateway" to the nearby Russian-occupied city of Donetsk.

"Avdiivka is a gateway to further movement in the Donetsk province for Russians. Whereas for Ukrainian forces, it would be a gateway to Donetsk, which is currently held by Russian forces," says Eugene Chausovsky, the Senior Director for Analytical Development and Training at New Lines Institute.

While the fall of Avdiivka may not decisively alter the course of the war, it could grant Russia greater access to other parts of Donetsk, he tells TRT World.

"I would say that Avdiivka is not likely to turn the tide of the war if Russian forces are indeed able to capture it, but it could give Russia greater access to other parts of Donetsk.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has has cited the fall of Avdiivka as consequence of the delay in the supply of longer-range weapons to Ukraine.

Kamran Gasanov, a Russian analyst, expects Russia to advance further after the capture of the key town, which is home to Ukraine’s largest coke plant.

"The loss of Avdiivka gives Russia the opportunity to advance further," he says, adding, "Russian troops have already done this by 7-8 km."

Gasanov anticipates "several consequences" arising from Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka.

The Ukrainian military will have fewer opportunities to shell Donbass as the front line shifts back, allowing Russia the chance to advance further to possibly reach places like the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, he says.

Not so easy

Russian troops have taken the city after a months-long assault in which, according to Ukrainian military claims, Moscow suffered a high number of casualties.

Ukrainian journalist Illa Ponomorenko says Russia’s victory at Avdiivka has come after it endured "tremendous" losses.

"We're yet to make an ultimate conclusion regarding numbers, but to seize (what's left of) Avdiivka, over the last four months alone, Russia lost several hundred armoured vehicles and an extremely high quantity of manpower. Everything that's visually confirmed and documented," he says.

Ponomorenko says that Russia's offensive capacity has been severely weakened and will take months to be rebuilt, potentially leaving Ukrainian forces in a defensive posture outside the ruined city.

Is Russia winning the ground overall?

The fall of Avdiivka has prompted some experts to question if it points toward Russia’s overall gains on the battlefield.

Kamran Gasanov, senior lecturer at People's Friendship University of Russia, says that Russia holds significant advantages over Ukraine financially and in terms of military equipment.

Russia's self-sufficiency in producing ammunition, firearms, and military equipment internally, without depending on external sources, contributes to its strategic advantage on the battleground, he says.

Ponomorenko, the journalist, also says that Russia is effectively able to fund the war despite international sanctions.

"International sanctions have rather limited effect" as Russia continues to find loopholes to skirt the economic and financial sanctions, he says.

While blaming the fall of Avdiivka on Ukrainian government’s lack of resolve, strategic vision, leadership, and chronically half-hearted decisions, Ponomorenko says Russia had enough time to adapt and restructure its economy, find alternative markets for its oil trade and make money to fund its war.

New Lines Institute’s Chakovsky says that while Ukraine has certainly faced a setback, it doesn’t mean a big win for Russia.

"We have seen some tactical gains by Russia recently, but I would broadly categorise it as a stalemate.”

A money game

Ukraine is facing significant ammunition shortages, and the US has failed to release much-needed funds this year as Congress struggles to pass a $60 billion aid package.

The delay in US aid has put pressure on Europe, where Germany, the second-largest contributor of military funding to Ukraine, has confirmed its commitment by providing and pledging around 28 billion euros ($30.2 billion) in aid thus far.

Zelenskyy, a day before Russia gained Avdiivka, urged allies at a global security conference in Munich to act quickly, saying "Unfortunately, keeping Ukraine in an artificial deficit of weapons, particularly in... artillery and long-range capabilities, allows (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war."

Experts say one reason for the fall of Avdivvka was Ukraine’s inability to get hold of much needed artillery munitions.

“The absence of the United States as a key provider of artillery munitions still severely decreases Ukraine's use of artillery to support forces on the ground and perform counter-battery activities, which are also crucial against superior Russian artillery," says Ukrainian journalist Ponomorenko.

"The dire situation in Avdiivka, which has been an extremely hard target for Russians, was precipitated by Ukraine's severe lack of manpower and also Russia's massive use of gliding bombs, up to 50-60 every single day, against which Ukraine, possibly at least until the deployment of F-16 jet, has no countermeasures.”

Experts say a pause in international funding threatens to weaken Ukraine's military position.