Iran presidential run-off: Reformist hopes amid conservative realities

The first round of voting in Iran’s presidential elections on June 28 failed to throw up a clear winner, but it did provide a revealing snapshot of the country's political landscape.

Concluding in dramatic fashion with extended voting hours and leading to a second-round runoff, this election marks a pivotal moment in Iran's contemporary history.

The dynamics between reformist and conservative factions, unprecedented low voter turnout, and the underlying tensions in Iran's socio-political fabric present a complex picture that warrants closer examination.

Delays and discontent

The Iranian Ministry of Interior's decision to extend voting hours multiple times—from the original closing time of 18:00 to midnight—was a telling indicator of the current political climate.

Despite these extensions, voter turnout remained remarkably low, registering below 40 percent. This figure is particularly striking compared to historical average participation rates since the 1979 revolution.

Such low turnout not only reflects widespread voter apathy but also a deep-seated disillusionment with the current political system.

Battle of ideologies

The run-off on July 5 will see Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist with Turkic roots, take on hardline conservative Saeed Jalili for the president’s post.

Pezeshkian's campaign, marked by promises to address economic sanctions and improve women's rights, resonated with many Iranians desperate for change.

His bold stance against the morality police's harsh enforcement of dress codes was particularly noteworthy, signalling a shift towards more liberal policies if he wins. Pezeshkian secured 42.5 percent of the votes in the first round.

On the other hand, Saeed Jalili, a seasoned politician known for his hardline stance on Iran's nuclear programme, represents the conservative establishment.

His campaign emphasised self-reliance and resistance against Western influence, appealing to a significant portion of the electorate who favour maintaining the status quo. Jalili garnered 38.6 percent of the votes in the first round.

The reformist side may be encouraged by these results, and participation rates could increase in the second round.

However, the 13.8 percent of votes that went to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are likely to shift to Jalili, which might be sufficient for him to win the election.

The lowest vote share in the first round went to Mostafa Pourmohammadi, who received only 0.8 percent of the votes.

Raisi’s shadow and the Guardian Council

This election took place against the backdrop of former president Ebrahim Raisi's death, which affected the political atmosphere. His passing left a power vacuum and created a sense of urgency for a smooth transition.

However, the role of the Guardian Council in vetting and disqualifying candidates has again come under scrutiny. The disqualification of prominent moderate and reformist figures has led to accusations of "election engineering," designed to limit genuine competition and maintain a conservative grip on power.

Notably, the disqualification of figures like Ali Larijani, a prominent moderate conservative, has raised questions about the integrity of the election process.

Larijani's exclusion likely dissuaded many moderate voters from participating, contributing to the low turnout. This highlights a significant issue: the systematic exclusion of moderate voices can deepen political divides and erode the legitimacy of the electoral process.

Adding to the complexity, two candidates, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Alireza Zakani, withdrew from the election the day before voting in favour of Ghalibaf and Jalili, respectively.

However, this move wasn't sufficient for the conservative candidates to lead the polls.

Implications for Iran's future

The low voter turnout and the Guardian Council's political manoeuvres suggest a growing disconnect between the Iranian populace and their leaders.

This disconnect could have significant implications for the future, as it may erode the legitimacy of the ruling establishment and lead to increased social unrest.

Moreover, the differing platforms of Pezeshkian and Jalili highlight the broader ideological battle within Iran. A victory for Pezeshkian could signal a shift towards more open and liberal policies, particularly regarding social freedoms and international relations.

Conversely, a win for Jalili would likely reinforce Iran's current trajectory of resistance against Western influence and strict adherence to conservative social policies.

The outcome of the run-off on July 5 will be crucial.

It will not only determine the next president but also indicate the direction in which Iran is headed—towards reform and liberalisation or deeper entrenchment in conservative ideology.

Regardless of the outcome, the election process has already revealed significant cracks in Iran's political edifice, highlighting the urgent need for reforms that resonate with its people's aspirations.

The exclusion of many moderate conservative and reformist candidates, including Ali Larijani, has added a new dimension to the existing reformist-conservative struggle, introducing a rift between moderate conservatives and hardliners.

This move could potentially lead to deeper issues within Iran as the political system's representation gap widens, likely contributing to future unrest.

Iran's future hangs in the balance, awaiting the decision of its electorate in what promises to be a historic moment.