Is Biden's Gaza ceasefire plan only for his political survival?

After the Israeli military attacked a refugee camp in Rafah on May 26, killing at least 45 people, US President Joe Biden refused to condemn it. More specifically, he felt that the killing of women, children and babies - something that caused an international outrage - did not warrant his much-hyped “redline”.

A few days later on May 31, he told the press that it was now “time for the war to end”.

Sure enough, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office announced that a negotiating team had been authorised to "propose a framework for achieving this objective", a reference to the release of hostages held by Hamas.

But then on Saturday, June 1st, Netanyahu said that there would be no "permanent ceasefire," and that "Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed."

He recounted these conditions as “the destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel,” stating that the notion of Israel agreeing to a permanent ceasefire before these are fulfilled is a “non-starter.”

However, a Netanyahu aide later told the press that Israel had agreed to Biden’s plan. However, there has been no official announcement clarifying what’s happening.

Israel's ambiguous and reluctant responses to the ‘Biden plan’, despite the US President’s claim that it was already "greenlighted" by Tel Aviv, has raised questions about whether Washington is intentionally sowing confusion about its plans on how to stop the war.

A fait accompli

Joe Biden, a self-proclaimed Zionist, deliberately announced his proposal at the start of the Sabbath - a Jewish holiday - possibly aiming to buy time, says British Palestinian academic and political activist Azzam Tamimi.

"By doing so, the media would focus on his proposal for at least 24 hours before the Israelis could respond."

Alternatively, the announcement on Friday evening, May 31st, might have been intended to directly appeal to the secular Israeli public—who are less likely to observe the Sabbath—in order to exert more pressure on the Israeli government to implement it, Alon Liel, the former general director of the Israeli foreign ministry, tells TRT World.

The far-right and ultra-Orthodox members of the Knesset are pressuring Netanyahu not to accept any deal with Hamas and to not slow down the attack on Gaza, even after the hostages return.

That is why the far-right politicians pose a significant obstacle not only for Netanyahu’s political career but also for Biden’s, experts say.

At the same time, it appears that with this proposal, Biden has caught Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition government off guard, Tamimi tells TRT World.

While seemingly imposing a fait accompli on Israel, he suggests that there's a possibility that Biden collaborated with certain Israeli officials, potentially more liberal ones, to compel Netanyahu to act on a ceasefire.

Regional experts suggest that radical right-wing figures within Netanyahu's government may have been sidelined when the plan was being prepared.

If that was the case then Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir would certainly be one of the officials who are annoyed. Soon after the introduction of the plan, he urged Netanyahu not to sign "a reckless deal that will bring an end to the war without the collapse of Hamas.”

Gvir reiterated his threat to withdraw from the government if the plan goes through, once again showing that Netanyahu is at the mercy of far-right groups for his political survival.

Biden’s test

Biden insistently labelled the latest plan as an "Israeli proposal," and made State Department spokesman Matthew Miller and National Security spokesman John Kirby highlight that it was developed through “extensive diplomacy” involving the American national security team and the State Department.

The reason why this “Israeli proposal” was announced in Washington is basically to force Netanyahu to implement it, says Alon Liel.

The driving force behind Biden's desire for a ceasefire in the bloody conflict is not humanitarian concerns. It is the escalating public pressure he faces within the US, particularly in the lead-up to the US presidential elections.

By imposing a plan that closely resembles previous agreements which were agreed by Hamas, the US president is attempting to ease domestic pressure as elections draw near, says Tamimi.

Throughout, the Biden Administration has sent conflicting messages, failing to put actual pressure on Israel, he adds.

The biggest obstacle

Now desperately seeking a resolution in Gaza for the sake of his own political career, Biden has defended Israel against genocide charges at the International Court of Justice and dismissed the case as "meritless."

As he seeks for the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution endorsing his latest proposal, his office distributed a one-page draft text to council members.

For the resolution to pass, it requires at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by the US, France, Britain, China, or Russia. The US has vetoed ceasefire resolutions for Gaza on three occasions since October.

Biden also stated earlier that he would restrict weapons supplies to Israel if it targeted Rafah's populated areas, where hundreds of thousands of civilians are still seeking shelter.

Israeli tanks have already rampaged through Rafah.

As the primary arms supplier to Israel, the US now claims to have forwarded the proposal to Hamas but has yet to receive a response, labelling the group as "the sole obstacle to a Gaza deal."

However, it seems that Netanyahu, who late Monday said that he was "not ready to stop" the war on Gaza and claimed that Biden's remarks about the proposal were "inaccurate," is showing no intent to stop the bloody war as evidence from the continuous Israeli bombings in Gaza.