Major political changes expected in Lebanon after Nasrallah's death

Beirut - The tiny country of Lebanon is reeling from 85 tons of bunker-busting bombs which Israel reportedly dropped over its capital, killing hundreds in a span of days. The confirmed assassination of general secretary and top leader of Lebanese armed group Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah in the intensified attacks has served an equally shattering blow.

For decades, Nasrallah had been a powerful figure with a dominant influence in the deeply politically divided country. Being the top leader in the Iran-backed group that has been Israel’s arch foe for years, news of his assassination is sure to have a ripple effect felt far beyond Lebanon.

His death has been welcomed by those resentful of Iranian influence in the region, and saddened by those cheering for military response to Israel’s aggressions.

On the ground, several small protests broke out in Beirut and in regions where thousands of internally-displaced people (IDPs) have taken refuge, with many expressing anger and sadness at the news.

The assassination has added to the shock, panic and confusion the Lebanese people have been experiencing for months, as both Nasrallah and Israeli officials exchanged pledges to intensify their year-long trade of fire amid the war on Gaza.

Beyond Lebanon’s borders, and particularly for Iran, Nasrallah’s death means the loss of Tehran’s number-one person in the Levant, including backing Syria's Bashar Al Assad administration throughout years of civil strife.

‘Hezbollah at its weakest’

According to a political analyst close to Hezbollah who asked to use only his initials RO because of the sensitivity of the issue, Nasrallah's death leaves a gaping hole in leadership.

"Hezbollah’s opponents will view the group as being at its weakest and vulnerable point. This will bear multiple consequences, including affecting the chances of presidential candidate Suleiman Franjieh who was backed by Hezbollah as bearing the slogan of 'A president who does not stab the resistance’," RO noted.

Nasrallah's death has also stoked mounting anger towards Iran among the group’s members, due to what many deem as complete silence towards the string of recent assassinations targeting Hezbollah's top leaders.

"The anger is understandable, especially after the series of blows that the group received, the most severe of which was Sayyed Nasrallah. The delayed confirmation of his assassination reflects the state of shock it triggered in Tehran,” RO said.

Israel said on Friday that its massive attack targeting Beirut which resulted in the destruction of multiple-storey buildings yielded Nasrallah's death, but Hezbollah did not confirm this until Saturday afternoon.

Nasrallah’s assassination is the latest in a string of Hezbollah leaders who were killed by Israel since late August, including the assassination of Fouad Shukr.

"Despite the severity of the blow and the extent of the loss, anyone who knows the group's doctrine and ethics and the difficulties it has gone through, knows very well that Hezbollah is capable of establishing a new leadership and adapting to it," the source told TRT World.

RO noted however that the main challenge lies in overcoming the loss of Nasrallah. "Eastern societies highly regard leaders, and Nasrallah is one who is difficult to replace," he said.

Regarding Iran’s next move, the Hezbollah-affiliated source said that Tehran’s response to the assassinations, of not declaring an all out war, is understandable.

"Iran originally did not want this war and had internal considerations. It did not give (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu the opportunity to drag it into the war that he wanted between Washington and Tehran," he explained.

Major strategic shift

Alain Sarkis, a political commentator and journalist, said Nasrallah’s assassination is indicative of "Iran bailing out on Hezbollah."

Speaking to TRT World from Beirut, he said that with Nasrallah’s killing, "the region has now entered a phase of major strategic shift."

"Will we see nuclear negotiations starting soon? Will there be a US-Iran agreement soon?" wondered Sarkis, referring to a nuclear accord signed by Tehran and six world powers in 2015, under which Tehran pledged to curb its nuclear programme in return for lifting decades-long international sanctions. However, the US under former President Donald Trump's administration pulled out of the accord in 2018.

According to Sarkis, how Nasrallah’s death affects Lebanon could be determined by the fate of Iranian talks with Washington.

"There is massive confusion in Lebanon right now. Prime Minister Najib Mikati would negotiate with Nasrallah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, but after these attacks, Mikati would consult with Berri. But the government cannot take fateful decisions before receiving American signals to know the developments on the ground, which means that the position in the government is linked to the American-Iranian position," he said.

An end to the war

Speaking to TRT World, political researcher Joe Hamoura said he foresees a push by the Lebanese government, led by Mikati, to bring war with Israel to an end.

"Mikati has no real role in the war and is not a party in it, except for sheltering the displaced and providing medical assistance. He is not a primary partner in the war. Mikati can use diplomatic means to pressure for a ceasefire, and Mikati can accept whatever the settlement is, as he has no choice," Hamoura said.

About 1 million Lebanese people have been displaced since last October, as a result of Israel’s intensified attacks. The country’s sapped healthcare sector is being stretched thin by the ongoing aggression on Lebanon, after over 800 people were killed over the past 10 days.

Hammoura predicted that Nasrallah’s assassination would also usher an end to "the project of political Shiism" in Lebanon, in reference to the dominating rule of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement over the country.

"After a while, an agreement would be reached and a settlement would be concluded to confirm the end of this era," predicted Hammoura.

He cited the assassination of President Bashir Gemayel in 1982, with which ended "political Maronitism," ushering in peace following the Lebanese civil war. He also noted the end of Lebanon's political Sunnism with the 2005 assassination of President Rafik Hariri.

"For now, the Shia reign over Lebanon has collapsed with Nasrallah’s assassination,” he concluded.

This piece is published in collaboration with Egab.