Middle East muddle: Will Israel declare all-out war against Hezbollah?

The Middle East teetered on the edge of war after Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander, apparently in retaliation for a rocket strike that killed 12 children in Israel invaded Golan Heights last week.

The two incidents were followed by the assassination of Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh by Israel in Iran on Wednesday, which prompted a threat of a harsh response from the country's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Though Hezbollah has denied any role in the Golan Heights rocket strike, Tel Aviv’s swift response meant it does not accept the Iran-aligned Lebanese group’s claim.

Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, was killed in an airstrike on July 31 in the capital of Lebanon in what Israel described as an “intelligence-based elimination” operation.

A Hezbollah commander described the Israeli strike as a “great stupid act” and vowed to retaliate against Israel.

Even though there’s been a low-key yet persistent exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah since Tel Aviv invaded Gaza last October, both sides have been intent on avoiding an all-out war so far.

Going by the ominous statements by top Israeli leadership, that restraint seems to be coming apart.

“The state of Israel will not and cannot overlook this. Our response will come, and it will be harsh,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a visit to the soccer field where young members of the Druze community.

Despite the rhetoric from both sides and the danger of a wider conflict, analysts rule out the possibility of the two sides turning the ongoing attacks and killings into a full-fledged war.

“Israel doesn’t have the ability to launch a war against Hezbollah. The [Israeli] army is increasingly exhausted after nine months of fighting in Gaza,” says Dr Yusri Hazran, senior lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at Shalem College in Jerusalem.

Speaking to TRT World, Hazran says the option of going to war against Hezbollah “doesn’t seem real” despite threatening statements by Israeli leaders.

Israel is not interested in launching an open war against Hezbollah, he says. In fact, it might not be able to wage this war at the moment even if it wanted to, he adds. That’s because a fight against Hezbollah might lead to a “wide destruction of infrastructure” within Israel.

“What’s expected now is a limited military operation… which will not lead to a regional war,” Hazran says.

The Israeli military has lost at least 635 soldiers since last October when it entered Gaza. It has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, since then.

Adham Saouli, professor of politics and international relations at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, tells TRT World he believes Israel “can fight” Hezbollah, but it remains uncertain if it can “decisively win” that war.

“A war with Hezbollah will be very costly for Israel. It will not be limited to the Lebanese front but will certainly be a regional war,” he says, noting that Israel has failed in 10 months to realise its military and political goals in the “tiny, encircled and occupied Gaza”.

The cost of the Gaza war is mounting for Israel, which has been on a global borrowing spree to fund its $67 billion war in Gaza, widening the gap between its expenses and tax revenues.

“A war with Hezbollah will be on a larger scale and throw Iran into the fray. Israel will need the support of the US, which at the moment, has no appetite for a regional war,” he adds.

Iran has long waged a shadow war against Israel through regional players. Opening a second front against Iran-aligned group without US support will be a further drag on the already stretched resources of the Israeli military.

A major reason for the uncharacteristic caution exercised by Israel so far is the expectation that Donald Trump will return to power in the US as president. He’s a “strong supporter of Israel”, but at the same time, he wants the war in the Middle East to be over, says Saouli.

“[Trump] will not allow Israel to drag the US into a regional war, especially against Iran, which will ultimately lead to a confrontation with Russia and benefit China,” he says.

Another preventive factor for Israel is the growing strength of Hezbollah. Saouli says there’s no doubt that Hezbollah’s military capabilities have “greatly improved since 2006” when it came face-to-face with the Zionist state in a month-long fight known as the Israel-Hezbollah War.

“We can see this in the ongoing contained war. Israel is aware of [Hezbollah’s strength] and certainly factors it in its calculations,” he says.

Far from being a relatively ragtag group that took on the Israeli military almost two decades ago, Hezbollah has become a “formidable military force” over the years, says Hazran of Shalem College.

The Lebanese government tried to cut down Hezbollah to size in May 2008. But the group fought back, taking control of Beirut and attacking Druze villages in Mount Lebanon. The tussle between Hezbollah and the government became the “most serious internal conflict” that Lebanon has known since the end of its Civil War in 1989, he says.

The blitz by Hezbollah was followed by the Doha Agreement, which granted the group the right to practically veto any government decision. Since then, Hezbollah has gone from strength to strength.

“Hezbollah’s military organisation currently enjoys unchallenged military superiority,” says Hazran.

No wonder then that Israel’s response to the rocket strike has been measured so far.

For example, Israel said on July 30 it struck overnight approximately 10 Hezbollah targets in seven different areas of southern Lebanon, killing one fighter from the Lebanese group.

On July 29, Israeli strikes hit a motorcycle in Lebanon near the border, killing two people and wounding three others.

Thus, the string of attacks by Israel seems in line with the usual cross-border fire since October, yet the possibility of a full-fledged war is not wholly eradicated as the tension is rising due to Israeli assassinations of top Hizbollah and Hamas members.

“I think Israel will retaliate, and the reaction might be strong. But I do not believe at this stage Israel will opt for a full-fledged war,” says Saouli of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.