Modi faces coalition challenges as partners could push for plum posts

Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi is expected to take his oath as the Prime Minister of India for a third term on Sunday, June 9. However, this might be a bittersweet moment for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

This is the first time they have not been able to secure a majority since coming to power in 2014, and must now depend on their coalition partners to successfully form a working government.

There are two parties that hold the key to the fate of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA): the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), based out of the southern state of Andhra Pradesh with 16 seats, and the Janata Dal (United) based out of the eastern state of Bihar, with 12 seats.

The TDP and JD(U), the two largest parties after the BJP in the NDA, have said that they would support the bloc, and ensure that they form a government at the centre. Putting speculation of whether they would switch sides to rest, Modi himself tweeted out a picture after the partners met on June 5, Wednesday.

However, the TDP and JD(U) are aware of the kind of bargaining chips they hold, and reports suggest that both groups are negotiating better terms for themselves.

TDP's demands

Media reports suggest that the TDP is expected to demand up to six berths in the Council of Ministers, and the post of Speaker in the Lower House of Parliament.

Speaking toTRT World, a TDP spokesperson said the ministerial berths were "due," but their "first and foremost priority" was shifting the capital of his state.

The proposal was first floated when the TDP presided over Andhra Pradesh between 2014-2019, and had support from all the political parties in the NDA, said the TDP spokesperson, Jyothsna Tirunagari.

She added, "But after we left the NDA at the time, and the YSR Congress Party (the main opposition in the state) came to power in 2019, they said there would be three capitals for the state."

Chandrababu Naidu, the TDP chief, had quit the NDA in 2018 after his demands for special category status for the state of Andhra Pradesh, which would make them entitled to more funds from the Centre, were not met. Media reports suggest that both the TDP and JD(U) have now demanded that their states be given the special category status.

Tirunagari however, said that this was no longer really a demand. "It is not that we are asking for special category status or not asking for it- there are internal deliberations going on about it," she said.

However, party sources confirmed to TRT World that the TDP seems to be keen on the post of the Speaker in the Lower House of Parliament.

"We are actually looking for the Speaker post. We had GMC Balayogi ji as the speaker during NDA 1 under Atal Bihari Vajpayee ji (from 1998 to 2002). So I believe we have asked for this," said the source, who asked not to be named.

Reportedly, one of the top contenders for the post is Balayogi's son and first time TDP MP, Ganti Harish Madhur. However, when contacted by TRT World, he laughed off inquiries, saying nothing was clear at the moment.

"It will be decided as part of the meeting of NDA MPs in Delhi (on June 7, Friday)," the MP said.

However, it is unclear if the party has presented the demands to Modi and his party yet.

"I met Chandrababu Naidu (earlier this week). He said it hasn't been raised yet and that it will only come up in later rounds," veteran journalist Vinod Sharma told TRT World.

What JD(U) wants

Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) with 12 seats was also among the kingmakers in this election. Kumar, the current Chief Minister of Bihar who is well known for jumping ship and switching sides, was part of the multi-party opposition, called the INDIA bloc, until he quit in 2024, after Congress took the leadership reins of the coalition.

Party spokesperson KC Tyagi previously told reporters that his party wanted changes to be made to a newly implemented military recruitment plan that cut tenure and benefits, called the Agniveer scheme.

"A section of voters has been upset over the Agniveer scheme. Our party wants those shortcomings which have been questioned by the public to be discussed in detail and removed...On (Uniform Civil Code), as the national president of the party, CM had written to the Law Commission chief. We are not against it but a solution should be found by talking to all stakeholders," he previously said.

But on Thursday, he told TRT World that the JD(U) "has no demands," and would extend "unconditional support" to the NDA. This is despite reports that JD(U) may demand up to three ministerial berths.

Will the BJP learn to share?

Modi first came to power in 2014 with a thumping majority. At the time, his BJP won 282 seats, and they did even better in 2019, when the BJP won 303 seats. This means that Modi's party has always had the numbers to form the government on its own, as any party or group of parties need a simple majority of 272 in the 543 strong Parliament.

However this year, the BJP has only won 240 seats, putting them in the unique and unfamiliar position of having to rely on their coalition partners to form the government.

"Modi is not used to sharing space," veteran journalist Vinod Sharma told TRT World.

In fact, by Thursday, reports emerged that the BJP may not be willing to part with crucial roles and posts, including those of Home, Defence, and Speaker.

So what could this mean for the fate of the coalition?

"Despite speculations, we have solid allies," BJP spokesperson Anil Antony told TRT World Antony added that there was "nothing alarming" and that the party had better numbers than what Congress had when it came to power in 2004 and 2009.

On questions of what portfolios are expected to go to allies, and which ones would the BJP hold close, he said he would not be responding to those queries at the moment. "All that you will see soon. In just four days, you will see," he said.