Russian elections: Putin's goal is to show a united Russia

Russia’s incumbent President Vladimir Putin is widely anticipated to secure a fifth term despite not yet officially announcing his candidacy.

While exhibitions and cultural performances celebrating his era are underway, the election's outcome is considered predetermined, given Russia's history of managed elections and weak political opposition.

However, for Putin to genuinely bolster his political mandate, he must effectively renew public support, despite the expected reelection, analysts say.

“They are important; to provide Putin with a veneer of public legitimacy as President, to allow the regime elite to demonstrate their loyalty to him, to marginalise any opposition, and to mobilise the population to support his mad and destructive war in Ukraine,” John Foreman CBE who served as UK Defence Attaché Moscow from 2019 to 2022, told TRT World.

Winning the election is considered straightforward, analysts say, but the focus is on rallying the public to participate in what effectively becomes a one-sided election, showcasing support for Putin and his agenda.

Over the past year, the Kremlin has been actively preparing for the election, crafting themes and promoting Putin's image to stir popular enthusiasm.

Drawing from past practices, regional leaders across Russia have likely been assigned targets for both voter turnout and Putin's share of the vote, typically ranging from 70 to 80 percent, with the understanding that failure to meet these goals could jeopardise their political futures.

If historical trends persist, the election will underscore Putin's strong support among elites and their capacity to mobilise the populace in support of state objectives.

“A resounding show of national unity behind Putin’s war effort would further bolster his legitimacy while standing in sharp contrast to Ukraine’s anxiety about the battlefield situation and the West’s mounting fatigue over supporting the war,” Thomas E. Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said.

“The Kremlin will also seek to highlight a strong showing in the five occupied Ukrainian provinces as further evidence of the population’s deep satisfaction with being reunited with Russia.”

The sole prominent opposition figure, liberal politician Boris Nadezhdin, has been disqualified from participating in the election by Russian courts, including the Supreme Court, following an appeal.

Among the remaining candidates are 75-year-old Nikolai Kharitonov, representing the local Communist Party, who typically secures second place behind Putin, albeit by a considerable margin. Despite criticising some of Putin's domestic policies, Kharitonov supports Russia's war in Ukraine.

Another contender, Vladislav Davankov, aged 40, is one of the youngest candidates and portrays himself as a liberal advocate for preserving individual freedoms in Russia. However, he has stated his reluctance to criticise his political adversaries.

According to Reuters, Kharitonov and Davankov are expected to garner approximately 4 percent to 5 percent of the total vote each.

“Putin will have no genuine rivals in the upcoming election, but the Kremlin is still keen to project the impression of competition, seeking to draw Russians’ attention to the intrigue of who will come second,” said Yulia Mineeva, New Generation Europe Foundation Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme.

“Opposition-minded citizens, however, are seriously considering resorting to voting for a ‘spoiler candidate’ or simply spoiling their ballot papers, seeing no other way to demonstrate to the authorities their protest at the ever-increasing totalitarianism.”

How will the opposition react?

Despite the prohibition on protests in Russia and the government's crackdown on dissent during the conflict in Ukraine, tens of thousands of individuals disregarded the risk of arrest to attend Putin's toughest critic, Alexei Navalny’s funeral, indicating that Russia's opposition remains active and resilient.

Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Navalny, has urged Russians angered by her husband's death and the conflict in Ukraine to participate in a symbolic demonstration by gathering at polling stations at noon on Sunday.

The "Noon Against Putin" gatherings, dubbed as potential flash mobs by supporters, aim to challenge the credibility of the election visually and pose a dilemma for the authorities.

Fifteen days prior to his death, Navalny posed questions on social media:

"Will they close the polling stations at 12 noon? Will they organize an action in support of Putin at 10 a.m.? Will they register everyone who came at noon and put them on the list of unreliable people?"

However, the effectiveness of the plan is uncertain and is unlikely to significantly influence the outcome of the election.