What role would Iranian drones play in any regional crisis?

Operating with an ideological motive of a revolutionary state, Iran's military projects have become a closely monitored subject, which occasionally draws interest from regional and international players.

Historically, it was Iran’s missile programme that used to be a headache for Western diplomats. However, in recent years, Tehran’s investments and development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems have come under the spotlight.

The widespread use of Iran's UAVs by non-state actors has played a significant role in deepening regional crises.

Various countries, which produce armed drones have shared technology and sold their products. But Iran’s supply of armed drones to non-state actors has added a new dimension to military confrontation.

Despite lacking advanced technology and equipment, Iranian UAVs, unlike those held by many countries, have been portrayed as successful projects through propaganda efforts.

However, practical observations reveal that they have not demonstrated the expected performance, as evidenced by reports from Ukrainian soldiers who stated that these UAVs can be easily brought down even with light weapons from several kilometers away.

In essence, Iran's UAV projects, rather than being successful military projects with advanced technology, are important in the context of deepening regional crises, being frequently utilised by non-state actors and serving as a propaganda tool for Iran's revolutionary and expansionist rhetoric.

In numbers lies the strength

One crucial dimension of Iran's defense doctrine is the Swarming Tactic, which involves sending a horde of low-cost drones and rockets in direct of the enemy.

Iranian officials know that their conventional military stands little chance against the US and Israeli military in an all-out war. Hence, Iran has adopted a defense strategy known as the Swarming Tactic, characterized by defense and mass attacks.

From the Iranian perspective, the most suitable method to target US bases and warships in the event of a military attack on the country is to launch kamikaze boats and UAVs.

This tactic, which Iran-linked Houthis have successfully deployed against Saudi Arabia, aims to create a crisis and establish a front line across a vast geography, primarily through the Shia militia groups known as the Resistance Axis.

One of the tools these Shia militia groups are expected to use within the framework of the Swarming Tactic is the Iranian-produced UAVs, particularly the Shahed series drones.

Iranian UAV attacks

Among the UAVs in the inventory of the Iranian military, the most prominent are Ababil-3, Mohajer-6, Saegheh, Shahed, H-110 Sarir, Fotros, Karrar, and Kaman-22 UAVs.

The Shahed series of UAVs have gained the most attention from the international media due to their use by Russian troops in the ongoing Ukraine war.

For instance, a report by the Ukrainian Air Force on December 21, 2023, claimed that Russia targeted Ukraine with 3,700 Iranian-produced Shahed UAVs over nearly two years war.

Yurii Ihnat, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, stated on the same day in a television program that "every night, 10-15 regions are under attack by Shahed UAVs," revealing that Ukraine's air defense had successfully downed 2,900 UAVs launched by Russia.

According to open-source information, Moscow began using Iranian-produced Shahed UAVs in the Russia-Ukraine war starting in September 2022, gradually ramping up the attacks. Iran, however, countered these claims by asserting that it had sold these UAVs to Russia before the outbreak of hostilities.

An investigation by the Russian media outlets Protocol and RZVRT revealed that Iran and Russia established a joint factory for the production of Shahed UAVs. According to the findings of these outlets, the factory was established in the Alabuga region of Tatarstan after the war broke out.

Additionally, the Prana Network hacker group claimed to have hacked the email servers of Sahara Thunder, a company affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, facilitating arms sales to Russia.

According to the shared documents, an agreement was reached between Iran and Russia for the production of 6,000 Shahed-136 kamikaze UAVs, with a price offer of $193,000 per unit. Another offer of $290,000 per UAV was allegedly made for a smaller order of 2,000 units. The total sales amount was claimed to be finalised at $1.8 billion after adding licensing fees.

Vadym Skibitskyi, the Deputy Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR), stated on January 15, 2024, that Russia was producing around 330-350 Shahed kamikaze UAVs per month.

According to documents obtained by The Washington Post on August 17, 2023, Russia aimed to produce 6,000 Shahed-136 UAVs by the summer of 2025.

However, despite the extensive and widespread use, Iranian UAVs did not yield the expected results in the Russia-Ukraine war and fell short of achieving the desired objectives.

The utilisation of Shahed series UAVs was not limited to the Russia-Ukraine war. Newsweek reported on January 16, 2021, that Iran supplied Shahed-136 UAVs to Yemen's Houthis. These UAVs were allegedly used by the Houthis to target ships passing through the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

Israel’s Channel 14 claimed that the Yemen Houthis, also known as Yemen Ansarullah, used the Shahed-136 UAV to target various regions of Israel, such as Eilat.

On January 25, 2024, the leader of the Yemen Houthis, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, stated that since the beginning of the Israeli war in Gaza, the Yemeni Houthis had carried out 200 UAV attacks against ships passing through the Red Sea.

Online sources say that Lebanon's Hezbollah possesses Shahed UAVs, which has become a significant source of concern for Israel.

The noteworthy aspect of the use of Iranian-produced Shahed UAVs in Yemen and Lebanon is that, despite a low hit rate, they played a significant role in deepening the crises.

The most prominent use of Iranian-produced Shahed UAVs in a vast geography, mainly by non-state actors, was observed in attacks carried out by Shia militia groups in Iraq against US bases.

These militia groups, active in Iraq, consistently targeted US troops stationed s in Iraq and Syria.

In January 2024 alone, 83 attacks were recorded against US bases. The most significant and crisis-escalating attack occurred on January 27, 2024, when the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance group in Iraq targeted US bases Al-Tanf in Syria and Al-Rukban (Tower-22) in Jordan using Iranian-produced Shahed UAVs.

In this attack, three American military personnel lost their lives, and 34 others were injured.

While Iran denied any involvement, one senior US, official speaking to CBS News confirmed that the Shahed UAVs were used in the attack, raising questions about why the sophisticated air defense systems at the US. bases failed to detect and prevent the UAV attack.

Features of Shahed UAVs

The Shahed UAV series, developed by Shahed Aviation Industries, includes well-known models such as Shahed 129, Shahed 136, Shahed 171, Shahed 181, Shahed 191, Shahed 149, Shahed 147, and Shahed 238. Among these, Shahed 129 and Shahed 136 UAVs have played a significant role in regional crises.

In terms of technical specifications, the Shahed 129 UAV has a body length of 8 meters and a wingspan of 16 meters.

It is powered by a Rotax 914 engine and carries four Sadid-345 glide bombs with a total weight of 400 kg. According to General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force, the operational range of the Shahed 129 UAV is 1,700 km, with a maximum altitude of 25,000 feet. This UAV has been extensively used in Syria.

The Shahed 136 UAV, characterised as a kamikaze UAV, is allegedly developed based on Israel's Harpy UAV. It has a length of 3.5 meters, a weight of 200 kg, a maximum speed of 185 km/h, and a range of 2,000 kilometers. It has been heavily employed in the Russia-Ukraine war.

A disaster in the making?

The use of Shahed UAVs, which have actively played a role in regional crises for the past few years, is expected to become more widespread and acquire new dimensions.

Tensions between Iran-backed Shia militia groups and the US forces have increased in the wake of Israel’s war on Gaza. For the first time, facilities belonging to Iran-backed Shia militia groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen have faced a comprehensive US attack.

The crucial question here is whether Shia militia groups will back down against the US. If these groups do not retreat, it can be speculated that US bases will continue to be targeted with Shahed UAVs.

In such a scenario, if attacks persist against American troops in Iraq and Syria, it is not unlikely that Shahed UAV production factories in Iran will be added to the list of targets that are discussed in the John F. Kennedy Conference Room at the White House.