Why Mongolia is unlikely to face any action despite not arresting Putin

On September 2, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia, a member of the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for him in March 2023.

Putin is the last of three serving government leaders who have been issued arrest warrants by the ICC, following Sudan's Omar al Bashir and Libya's Muammar Gaddafi in the past.

Yet, the possibility of his arrest seemed far-fetched from the start, with the Russian president receiving assurances from Mongolian authorities that he wouldn't be arrested ahead of his visit, according to information shared with Bloomberg.

In March 2023, the world court accused the Russian president of committing war crimes in Ukraine on charges related to the alleged abduction of Ukrainian children to Russia.

The Kremlin has dismissed the action as meaningless and has consistently denied allegations that its forces have committed atrocities during its war in Ukraine.

Since then, the Russian President has travelled to China, North Korea, and Vietnam, neither of which are signatories to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the ICC.

In August, Putin joined the BRICS summit in Johannesburg via video link after the South African government asked him not to attend to avoid forcing the arrest warrant issue.

Mongolia is the first ICC member country the Russian president has travelled to following the arrest warrant.

Binding based on consent

The world court does not have a police force or military of its own, and it must depend on the consent of national governments to execute arrest warrants.

Yet, states don’t always comply with ICC decisions. In a famous case, then Sudanese President Omar al Bashir wasn't arrested in 2015 when he visited South Africa, sparking condemnation by rights activists and the country’s main opposition party.

As a signatory to the Rome Statute, which governs the court, Mongolia is required to enforce the warrant and arrest Putin if he enters its territory.

If things had gone according to protocol, Putin would have been arrested once he landed in Mongolia by the county's law enforcement officials.

Once arrested, he would have been flown to the ICC's detention centre in The Hague, Netherlands, where he would face trial.

Yet, the Russian president received a warm welcome in Mongolia, a sparsely populated country squeezed between Russia and China, heavily dependent on the former for fuel and electricity and on the latter for investment in its mining industry.

Ahead of Putin’s visit, On August 30, ICC spokesperson Fadi El Abdallah stated that Mongolia has an obligation to cooperate with the court as “a State Party to the ICC Rome Statute.

“The ICC relies on its States Parties and other partners to execute its decisions, including in relation to arrest warrants,” the spokesperson said, adding that in cases of non-cooperation, ICC judges may issue a finding and report it to the Assembly of States Parties, which then determines the appropriate measures.

However, what specific actions might be taken was not clarified in the statement.

What awaits Mongolia?

The consequences that await Mongolia as a country that refused to cooperate with the Rome Statute as a signatory also depend on international cooperation.

In cases of non-compliance, the world court typically reacts by informing the UN Security Council, and the Assembly of States Parties, which could strain diplomatic relations between uncooperative states and countries or groups that strongly support the ICC.

“However, there are no serious consequences, such as sanctions, for the offending country,” Tamás Hoffmann, senior research fellow at the Institute for Legal Studies, told Politico.

The arrest warrant narrows the circle of possibilities for the Russian President, Sam Greene, the director of democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said.

According to Greene, the warrant can force “any government that’s going to think about hosting him to consider both the domestic and the international political consequences of that in a way they wouldn’t have had to before.”

“The overriding reason for this trip will have been to show that Putin can travel right now,” he added.

Kenneth Roth, the former longtime director of Human Rights Watch, described Russia’s move as "a sign of weakness,” asserting that the Russian leader could only manage a trip to a country with a small population of 3.4 million “that lives under Russia’s shadow”.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed allegations that the trip was about sending a message to Western countries, stating that the visit aimed at developing bilateral relations between two countries with “wonderful, glorious traditions.”

In a statement shared with Politico following Putin’s visit, a Mongolian spokesperson underscored the country’s reliance on its neighbours, noting that "Mongolia imports 95% of its petroleum products and over 20% of its electricity from our immediate neighbourhood, which has previously experienced technical interruptions. This supply is essential for the survival of our nation and our people."

On September 2, European Commission spokeswoman Nabila Massrali underscored that Mongolia carries “legal obligations” towards the ICC as a State Party to the Rome Statute since 2002.

However, she also acknowledged that the country “has the right to develop its international ties according to its own interests.”

In a similar case from last year, the Kremlin also received swift assurances from Armenian officials that Putin would not be arrested if he entered the country following the country’s decision to join the ICC.