Amid a political storm, the walls are closing in on Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unity government now hangs by a thread. This week, conservative minister Gideon Saar became the latest official to exit his coalition. Meanwhile, Benny Gantz, a war cabinet minister, has openly threatened to part ways if a controversial bill on military service comes to pass.

Currently, most Israelis are required to serve two or three years of military service, plus reserve duty. But ultra-Orthodox Jews (known as Haredi), who are politically powerful and account for about 13 percent of the population, often receive special exemptions.

Under the new conscription bill, it would be harder for Haredis to avoid enlistment, something that most Israelis support. Despite the need to increase army recruitment, Netanyahu has sided with the Haredis and is trying to work out a compromise bill, prompting swift opposition from war cabinet partners who want to project a stronger military presence in Gaza.

On the one hand, Netanyahu risks upending his three-member war cabinet if he fails to strike a compromise within days. But if he does alter the bill, he could lose the support of ultra-Orthodox parties. This could sink his government and prompt fresh elections.

There is another major challenge currently staring Netanyahu in the face. Relations between the United States and Israel have sunk to a wartime low after the US allowed the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

In response, Netanyahu cancelled a planned visit by a senior Israeli delegation to Washington and blamed the resolution for derailing hostage talks, a charge flatly denied by the US. To his hard-right base, Netanyahu’s message so far is clear: all options are on the table in Gaza, including a potential invasion of Rafah.

The PM delivered that message to a bipartisan group of US Congress members this week. All this amplifies fears in Netanyahu’s own war cabinet that his inflexible leadership style could damage Israel’s relations with the US, a core source of military and diplomatic cover in Gaza, illustrating the extent of political distrust and public frustration facing Netanyahu.

Conscription woes

Notably, a lasting compromise on Netanyahu’s conscription law appears increasingly out of reach.

This week, the Israeli premier’s ultra-Orthodox allies failed to reach an agreement on the bill. Members of Netanyahu’s own government, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, meanwhile want the religious community to contribute to the military recruitment effort.

This poses a significant challenge for Netanyahu at a time when the US warns against a potential Israeli invasion of Rafah. Israeli soldiers remain mired in Gaza and want the political leadership to share the burden of military service without exception.

Israel’s war on Gaza has already yielded the highest military casualty count in decades, nearly five times the death toll it suffered during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. Moreover, Netanyahu’s approach to the war has been heavily criticised by his political opponents, cost nearly $2.5 billion in support assistance to reservists, and drawn public ire for sustained battlefield losses.

According to one estimate, public trust in the Israeli military has grown nearly four times higher than faith in the political leadership itself. All this makes it difficult for Netanyahu to proceed with more unpopular choices at home that widen divisions between his fragile coalition and the military, effectively pushing his own war cabinet to the verge of collapse.

Even if Netanyahu somehow harmonised the polarising positions of his war-cabinet members and ultra-Orthodox allies, he faces a race against time. Israel’s Supreme Court has given the government a hard-set deadline of April 1 to present a bill that either extends military exemptions to religious allies or prompts a break from tradition. Either way, Netanyahu is increasingly running out of ways to see his case through.

Washington problems

Growing friction with Washington is another major obstacle to Netanyahu’s political survival. After Israel began its onslaught on Gaza last October, the PM constructed a metanarrative around defeating Hamas, touting a zero-compromise attitude towards Israel's national security.

For decades, the US-Israel relationship has been central to that sense of national security, guaranteeing unconditional diplomatic support, generous financial aid and hefty arms sales.

But sharp disagreements with the Biden administration over a Gaza ceasefire, hostage concessions, and future military strategy signal a tumultuous outlook when it comes to US-Israel relations under Netanyahu.

According to a new Gallup poll, a majority of Americans now disapprove of Israeli military aggression in Gaza, while Democrats and the American public have soured on providing more military aid to Israel. These are ominous signs for the Israeli premier, who is under significant pressure from far-right allies to oppose any measure of de-escalation in Gaza, even if it means standing up to the United States.

That position appears increasingly untenable now that Netanyahu has agreed to resend a delegation to the White House to hear alternatives to further escalation in Gaza.

Thus, intense domestic pressure, flagging popularity and a deeply divided coalition have left Israel’s longest-serving premier on the ropes.

His far-right base may welcome his collision course with Washington for now, but that is a cost that Israel simply cannot afford. Netanyahu’s critics have warned against losing Washington’s goodwill in the long-run, and cite his premiership as a major impediment to favourable US-Israel strategic ties.

For Palestinians, intense pressure on Netanyahu may not change much on the ground. Most Israelis still favour prolonged aggression in Gaza, regardless of who wields power at the centre. But an eclipse of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition could help sideline some of the staunchest opponents of Palestinian liberties and statehood in modern memory.