The truth behind Netanyahu's push to overhaul Israel's judiciary

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is renewing his push for controversial judicial reforms, which would grant his government greater control over judicial appointments and significantly weaken the independence of the country's Supreme Court.

These proposals, which sparked mass protests earlier this year, led to the largest demonstrations in Israeli history and forced a temporary freeze on the legislation.

Netanyahu's government is justifying the reforms by saying they're necessary to strengthen democracy. His allies have also expressed support for stopping the Supreme Court's alleged interference in parliamentary affairs.

But the reality is quite different.

Accountability fears

Netanyahu's renewed urgency to overhaul the judiciary comes after he appeared in court this week on corruption charges, as he stands accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

There's also been growing demands from the public for accountability for the October 7 Hamas-led attacks on Israel. A comprehensive judicial inquiry could expose damaging details about the preparedness—or lack thereof—of his administration, and potentially hold senior officials, including Netanyahu himself, responsible.

In this context, the reforms appear less about principle and more about shielding the prime minister and his government from scrutiny and consequences.

Adding to the pressure, a recently released scathing commission report, led by survivors of the attacks and relatives of hostages, blamed Netanyahu for undermining high-level decision-making and fostering the conditions that enabled the October 7 attack.

If the Supreme Court were to appoint a non-partisan judge to oversee investigations into Netanyahu's conduct, widespread outrage could grow – a scenario the prime minister is determined to prevent.

A state commission of inquiry, if initiated, could bring in scores of witnesses to rigorously scrutinise Netanyahu's pre-war conduct, and prepare the ground for prosecution. This could hinder Netanyahu's efforts to maintain plausible deniability over the attacks and his desire to shift blame onto the military.

But public pressure is having an effect. Israeli Justice Minister Yariv Levin, close Netanyahu confidante and the chief architect of the judicial overhaul plan, is facing renewed calls from the Supreme Court to appoint a new chief justice by mid-January of next year.

This could challenge the PM's efforts to stall the appointment process and promote a judge who would be favourable to Netanyahu and his hard-right coalition. Given the tight timespan, the rise of Justice Isaac Amit – a left-leaning judge who is opposed to the PM's overhaul plan – appears increasingly certain, complicating Netanyahu's power grab.

Amid this race to protect his own interests, Netanyahu seems to forget the fact that pushing for judicial reforms risks alienating the Israeli public further. For many, it is being seen as a distraction from more urgent priorities, such as the release of hostages believed to still be held in Gaza.

Though Netanyahu has expressed confidence that hostages will be freed with US support, he has yet to answer for the nearly three dozen captives feared dead. Public protests have carried on for months, and suggest the opposition won't fade quietly.

Coalition woes

Pressing to curb the judiciary's powers could also deepen divisions within Netanyahu's fragile coalition. Huge anti-government demonstrations last year pit his hard-right government against scores of protestors, fuelling allegations of use of force, which have only added to tensions.

Netanyahu is now under pressure from Israel's Attorney General to fire his far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, over alleged misconduct. Thus, a renewed push for judicial reforms could strengthen the termination case against Ben Gvir, whose support is critical for Netanyahu to maintain a convincing majority.

Adding to his troubles, Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners present another significant hurdle. The PM will find it difficult to push through any judicial reforms without meeting their core demand: that ultra-Orthodox Jews are exempted from military service. So far, Netanyahu has struggled to convince his coalition allies that their interests are well-protected.

If he presses for their demands, the PM risks a possible showdown with the Israeli Supreme Court, which has ruled out any prospects of exemption for ultra-Orthodox military service. On the other hand, if he turns a blind eye to these demands, his goal of pushing judicial reforms in record time could falter.

With patience wearing thin in his government, there are no easy options. Leading figures from the ultra-Orthodox segment have already construed lack of government action as a declaration of "war" on their community.

Former Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef has even called on unemployed Israelis to refuse military enlistment, signalling increased resistance to the government. If Netanyahu decides to persist with judicial reforms, it could be seen as a diversionary tactic among his ultra-Orthodox allies. Heightened tensions have the potential to weaken or even topple his fragile coalition.

Economic risk

Amid all of the political drama, it's important to note that the economic ramifications of Netanyahu's judicial ambitions could be destabilising for Israel.

The proposed overhaul risks increasing borrowing costs, undermining Israel's high-tech sector, and weakening the shekel. That's because renewed anti-government protests have the potential to sap foreign investor confidence, and as a result negatively impact borrowing costs.

History is an important guide: massive protests last year pushed the economy to the brink of a shutdown, threatening billions in losses. In 2025, the stakes will be even higher.

Netanyahu's government is already struggling to promote growth-focused reforms at a time when nearly 60,000 Israeli companies are at risk of closure.

The threat of renewed public opposition could also increase uncertainty in an economy pummelled by the Gaza war. All this indicates pressure on the government's austerity measures and could complicate efforts to control a rising budget deficit.

Thus understood, Netanyahu's push for controversial judicial reforms has little to do with protecting Israel's so-called "democracy."

Rather, it is an attempt to sidestep accountability for October 7 failings. In fact, as public patience wears thin and political pressures mount, Netanyahu's efforts to reshape Israel's judiciary could bring his government to the brink of collapse.