Assad out, but Russian bases remain in Syria

Soon after the fall of Bashar al Assad, many security experts rushed to write off Russia's military presence in Syria. The fate of Hmeymim air base and Tartus naval facility—Russia's only military installations outside the former USSR—seemed tied to that of the deposed regime. Satellite imagery showed Russian military personnel hastily packing equipment at Hmeymim, making the complete end of Russia’s presence in Syria appear certain.

The collapse caught Moscow off guard, triggering a swift narrative shift in Russian media and official responses. A December 9 evening news broadcast on Russia's Channel One set the tone: "While the rapid change of power came as a surprise, what's truly astounding is the complete paralysis of will shown by Syrian leadership and military." President Vladimir Putin himself reinforced this narrative during his annual Direct Line broadcast, noting that "Aleppo fell to just 350 militants, while 30,000 government troops and pro-Iranian units withdrew without a fight."

Yet Putin was quick to reject suggestions of Russian defeat. He maintained that Moscow had "essentially accomplished its objectives" in Syria, preventing the establishment of an "Islamic caliphate" and keeping terrorists from seizing power. Significantly, he emphasized that the new leadership in Damascus should not be labeled as terrorist—a careful diplomatic positioning that would prove crucial in subsequent negotiations.

On December 20, it emerged that Colonel General Nikolai Yuryev had stepped down as head of the FSB's military counterintelligence department. In a 2018 TASS interview, Yuryev had described his unit's primary mission in Syria as ensuring the security of Russian Aerospace Forces bases. Yuryev departed amid growing uncertainty about Russia's military presence in the region.

Meanwhile, Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler notes he sees no signs of a complete Russian withdrawal. According to him, Russia is consolidating its military assets from various parts of the country to two bases—Hmeymim air base in Latakia and the naval facility in Tartus.

While Moscow evacuated some diplomatic personnel and Russian diplomats privately discussed the possibility of a complete military withdrawal, the Moscow-run bases remain a point of leverage – not just for Russia but also for the new Syrian leadership that deposed Moscow’s long-standing ally, the Assad regime.

Assad himself reportedly fled through Hmeymim with Russian assistance on December 8, after his regime's last military positions collapsed.

Now a complex picture is emerging from behind the scenes. According to The Economist, intense negotiations are underway between Russia and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which has become a major force in the new Syria. Surprisingly, HTS is showing remarkable flexibility regarding continued Russian military presence.

"There are no red lines: this is based on interests, not ideology," The Economist quotes an HTS source familiar with the negotiations as saying. The group hasn't ruled out maintaining Russian bases and is willing to honor Russia's 49-year lease of Tartus port, signed in 2017.

This turn of events might seem paradoxical, given Russia's long-standing support for Assad. However, closer examination reveals an underlying logic. Syria's new authorities face a complex puzzle. They need international recognition, with the Taliban's isolation in Afghanistan serving as a cautionary tale for HTS. Maintaining Russian bases could become a bargaining chip for diplomatic recognition from Moscow, particularly as Western nations remain wary of a government where HTS—given its past Al-Qaeda connections—plays a leading role.

Israel's continued activities present another factor. Recent Israeli strikes on Syrian weapons depots—not in response to HTS attacks but allegedly to prevent potential threats to Israeli territory—while understandable, might push HTS to allow Russia to maintain its bases in exchange for protection against Israeli strikes.

The presence of terrorist formations in northeastern Syria adds another dimension. If the US increases support for PKK/YPG terrorists, HTS might view Russian military presence as a useful counterweight to American influence in the region.

Russia has offered humanitarian aid in exchange for continued base access, but the new authorities seek more comprehensive diplomatic and economic ties to end their isolation. Notably, Ukraine, despite being at war with Russia, has already offered Syria wheat supplies.

"We are at the first step of negotiations at this point. People are trying hard to stop the bloodshed; they would like to build a new life. We are forced to repair relations. The country is dead. People are very poor," an HTS representative explains to The Economist.

Meanwhile, some EU ministers insist Russians should be pushed out of Syria. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas has stated this issue will be raised in talks with Syria's new leadership. However, reality may prove more complex than European diplomats anticipate.

For Russia, maintaining bases in Syria holds strategic significance. Hmeymim base plays a crucial role in supporting Russian presence in Africa, while the Tartus naval facility ensures Mediterranean presence, especially important given restricted access through the Black Sea due to the Montreux Convention's limitations on military vessel passage.

Thus, despite widespread anti-Russian sentiment among war-weary Syrians, the new authorities appear ready for a pragmatic approach. HTS seeks to balance various external influences without fully aligning with any single power. In this complex game, Russian bases might prove a valuable bargaining chip in negotiations over the country's future.

Although the end of Russian influence in the region initially appeared straightforward, the emerging web of interests is once again enabling pragmatism to prevail over ideology.