Can India and Pakistan move beyond the rhetoric to restore mutual trust?

The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Islamabad was one of the key global diplomatic events of the month, but it was the Pakistan-India dimension that provided the most keenly watched sideshows of the conclave.

As expected, there was no formal bilateral engagement between Islamabad and New Delhi on the sidelines of the 23rd meeting of the SCO, an economic grouping of nine full members, including China and Russia.

The Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar had set the tone for his October 15-16 Pakistan visit – a rare trip by a top Indian official to the neighbouring country – when he said before the meeting that there would be no discussion on bilateral issues.

Yet, even this "absence" of formal bilateral engagement remained under the spotlight as South Asian watchers tried to read between the lines – from the red-carpet reception given to Jaishankar on his arrival in Islamabad to his handshake with the Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif or the exchange of pleasantries with the hosts.

Pakistan played the role of a gracious host in line with diplomatic norms. And luckily, the Indian Foreign Minister’s visit ended without any diplomatic spat between the two sides.

This is being interpreted as a good omen by many observers given the fact that in May 2023, when Pakistan’s then foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, visited India to attend the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers, he had a face-off with Jaishankar on the issue of terrorism.

Both Pakistan and India regularly accuse one another of “sponsoring terrorism” and use almost every international forum to malign their rival.

Bhutto-Zardari’s May 2023 Indian visit was the first by a senior Pakistani leader after 12 years, while Jaishankar became the first Indian foreign minister to land in Islamabad in more than nine years.

His predecessor, Sushma Swaraj, visited Pakistan in 2015 for the Heart of Asia Conference, focusing on Afghanistan.

While the Pakistan-India rivalry has derailed the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which had its last summit in 2014, the two countries have kept their acrimonious relations under check at SCO because it is a bigger platform and the two world powers – Russia and China – remain focused on making it work.

Ex-PM in talks mode?

However, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who heads the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, apparently tried to compensate for the lack of formal bilateral engagement between the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours by interacting with Indian journalists.

In his two separate meetings with the visiting Indian journalists, Nawaz Sharif -- the elder brother of Prime Minister Shehbaz -- extended an olive branch to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and expressed hopes for resumption of talks between the two countries sooner than later.

The elder Sharif refrained from discussing any contentious issue between the two countries.

His talking points, as reported by the Indian media, show that the former premier did not mention the protracted Kashmir issue, which has aggravated since August 5, 2019, when New Delhi unilaterally scrapped the special status of this only Muslim-majority region in the Hindu-dominated India.

This forced the then-Imran Khan government to downgrade diplomatic ties with New Delhi and halt formal trade.

After Khan’s ouster from power in April 2022, the two successive coalition governments – both led by Shehbaz Sharif – and a caretaker setup willy-nilly stuck to their predecessor’s Kashmir policy.

But bilateral relations between Pakistan and India had nose-dived even before the scrapping of Kashmir’s special status.

A militant attack on India’s Pathankot airbase in January 2016 prompted New Delhi to break not just bilateral engagements with Pakistan but also sever all sports ties.

The militant attack at the Pathankot airbase had come a few weeks after Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan in December 2015 when Nawaz Sharif was the prime minister.

After the attack, New Delhi spurned Islamabad’s offers of engagement under the pretext that talks and terrorism cannot go hand-in-hand.

However, Pakistan, which blames India for sponsoring terrorism in the restive southwestern Balochistan province and other parts of the country, kept offering talks.

But India’s unilateral action in Kashmir forced Pakistan to link the normalisation of ties with India to first rolling back New Delhi's August 2019 unilateral actions in the disputed region.

An attempt was made to restore trade ties during the days of the Imran Khan government, but senior federal cabinet members and public pressure killed the move.

During the first term of Shehbaz Sharif, again a proposal was made to reopen trade with India in the wake of devastating floods in the country. But public pressure forced the government to shelve the proposal.

In recent months, some government stalwarts, including Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, have said there is mounting pressure from businesspeople to open trade with India.

Against this backdrop, Nawaz Sharif’s message of talks with India raises many questions.

The way forward

Among them, the foremost is whether Sharif’s message reflects his personal thoughts or he indirectly articulated the position of his younger brother’s government?

Another pertinent question is whether Pakistan’s powerful military establishment is on board in giving this message.

The current Chief of the Army Staff, General Syed Asim Munir, is seen as a hawk when it comes to India, which is a popular position in Pakistan.

Gen. Munir's posture stands in stark contrast to his predecessor, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who was keen on improving ties with the eastern neighbour.

Even for the sake of optics, any Pakistani government would find itself in a tight spot if it revises the Kashmir policy unilaterally in a bid to open talks and trade with India.

This would mean that Pakistan conceded on this core dispute by accepting the new redline drawn by India – accepting the revocation of Kashmir’s special status. This will be seen as a betrayal of the Kashmir cause both within the establishment and among the general public.

Former premier Imran Khan’s move to downgrade diplomatic ties and severe trade with India was seen as the minimum steps Pakistan could have taken in response to India’s brinkmanship in Kashmir.

Pakistan will negate its 77 years’ stand on Kashmir if it resorts to business as usual with New Delhi following its August 2019 move.

Therefore, the Sharifs and their party – which are seen as soft on India by their critics and fans alike – find themselves in a tight spot in their bid to improve relations with India.

Their task has become even more steep because there appear to be no takers for improved relations with Pakistan in Modi’s Hindu nationalist government – at least for now.

India apparently feels no need to mend fences with Pakistan, given its growing economic and diplomatic clout on the world stage.

From its point of view, New Delhi has already solved the Kashmir dispute in its favour, and now it is just a matter of time before it manages to resolve the fallout of its decision.

Its hardline Hindu nationalist leaders are now even laying claims over the Pakistani side of Kashmir and the mountainous region of Gilgit-Baltistan. For them, it would be difficult to climb back from this kind of public rhetoric.

These factors make Sharif’s dream of improving ties with India in the near- to mid-future highly impractical.

Therefore, the Pakistani leadership, instead of giving conflicting signals to Kashmiris, must stick to its post-August 5, 2019 Kashmir policy earnestly.

There is no need to show undue haste or desperation in engaging with India. Under the current circumstances, cold peace and a status quo on the eastern frontiers remain the best hope and option.

Meanwhile, Pakistan should look towards its western and northern frontiers to boost trade with China, Central Asia, and the Middle East and beyond.

But, to improve trade and revive its economy, Pakistan must first focus on bringing political stability.

Only a politically stable and economically strong Pakistan could diplomatically engage with India on an equal footing.

Instead of showing one-sided flexibility, Pakistan must reciprocate the tough talk of India’s Hindu nationalist leaders.

Islamabad must keep the Kashmir issue alive by continuing its diplomatic, political and moral support to Kashmiris, who are demanding their right to self-determination under UN resolutions.