China, Pakistan must intensify counterterrorism efforts amid rising attacks

Amid rising attacks against Chinese strategic facilities in Pakistan, Beijing and Islamabad are rightly stepping up efforts to crack down on terror groups and key separatist outfits. But they must exert more pressure on Afghanistan to help solve their problem.

A string of suicide bombings in recent weeks claimed the lives of at least 18 people, including Chinese nationals, prompting Beijing to send its team of investigators to join Pakistan’s fact-finding probe. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has since vowed to leave "no stone" unturned in ensuring the security of Chinese nationals and joint projects.

The latest attack came last week, when a suicide bomber rammed his explosive-laden vehicle into a Chinese convoy in Pakistan’s northwest, killing five Chinese workers. All five were involved in the Beijing-backed Dasu project, the largest hydropower project under construction inside of Pakistan.

The renewed attacks are a cause of significant concern for China and Pakistan. Both countries have led multi-year efforts to counter attacks from ethnic Baloch militants and the banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), often through joint investigations and successful intelligence-based operations.

Last year, Pakistan arrested Gulzar Imam, the former operational head of Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), a group known to unify Baloch militant groups with a history of attacking Chinese interests in Pakistan.

This year, terrorist groups like the TTP seem intent on increasing member recruitment and subsequently, hostilities. China is a particular target of these groups because they see Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as an expansionist scheme that exploits native resources against the will of the local populations.

Recent attacks have stretched from Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province to its north, indicating an attack pattern that is centered around Chinese connectivity and infrastructure projects.

These fall under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a mega initiative that is part of the BRI. The corridor is seen as critical to Pakistan's long-term economic stability, and features a list of rail, road, energy and other development projects.

"China and Pakistan have the resolve and capability to make the terrorists pay the price. No attempt to sabotage China-Pakistan cooperation will ever succeed," China's Foreign Ministry recently said.

Initial investigations suggest that a network tied to TTP was likely behind the Dasu attack, underlining the imperative of a two-track approach to countering terrorism: prevent Baloch militants from strengthening alliances, and exert greater pressure on the Afghan Taliban to limit the TTP threat.

Consider the Baloch militancy threat. The banned Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a major secessionist outfit, continues to use its military wing to step up fighter recruitment in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province. This growth in recruitment has coincided with an expansion in suicide bomber ranks, allowing the group to carry out three major terrorist attacks this year.

These recruitment trends make it critical for China and Pakistan to supplement ongoing probes with a broader investigation on the links between Baloch militants and the TTP.

The latter has been steadily expanding its operational toehold in ethnic Baloch areas of Pakistan’s southwestern province, using a number of Baloch separatist groups to strengthen its ranks and refocus attacks on Chinese interests in the region.

This pattern could further empower groups such as the BLA to increase their attacks against CPEC’s flagship facilities around Gwadar, a strategically vital southwestern port city.

Recent signs include the BLA's failed attempt to infiltrate the Gwadar Port Authority Complex, which hosts scores of Chinese workers and engineers. Baloch separatists view China as an imperialist power that seeks to encroach upon the rights and resources of the local Baloch population.

BLA has promoted this view consistently over the years, exploiting local grievances, accelerating fundraising, and empowering its suicide squad – the Majeed Brigade – to conduct high-profile terror attacks against Chinese nationals since 2018.

For China and Pakistan, increased pressure on the Afghan Taliban could help weaken some of these growing operational linkages between BLA and the TTP.

Both groups have used Afghanistan as a staging ground for attacks against Chinese assets in Pakistan, underscoring a complex cross-border terrorism challenge. Islamabad is preparing to hand over initial evidence to the Afghan Taliban that indicates TTP fighters used Afghan soil to stage last week's attack, one of the most devastating against Chinese nationals in Pakistan since April 2022.

This could raise the stakes for the Afghan Taliban to cooperate with Pakistan and help address the sticky issue of TTP safe havens. The costs of inaction became clear last month when Pakistan conducted air strikes inside Afghanistan, targeting TTP commanders and killing civilians as well.

Expect surging attacks against Chinese assets and workers to further reinforce Pakistan’s zero-compromise attitude, having guaranteed foolproof security to Chinese personnel.

At the same time, the Taliban is also reluctant to lose China's goodwill. Beijing continues to serve as a major development and investment source for Afghanistan, and enjoys a rare diplomatic presence in Kabul.

After the Afghan Taliban's takeover in 2021, the TTP quickly integrated several hardline Baloch separatist groups into its ranks, contributing to a 73 percent surge in terrorist activity on Pakistani soil, including an increase in attacks against Chinese assets.

Now with operational links between terror groups becoming more fluid, closer China-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation serves as a vital imperative for long-term peace and stability.