Georgia's ruling party might not be as pro-Russia or anti-West as projected

Georgia’s parliamentary elections resulted in a victory for the ruling “Georgian Dream” party, which won 54 percent of the vote to secure 89 of 150 parliamentary seats.

The remaining seats went to opposition parties, including the Coalition for Changes with 19 seats, Unity - National Movement with 16, Strong Georgia with 14, and Gakharia for Georgia’ with 12. The final official results are expected by November 21.

President Salome Zurabishvili and opposition leaders rejected the results, alleging Russian interference and calling for protests. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze denied any violations, urging critics to present evidence, if there is any.

Zurabishvili, born in France to a Georgian immigrant family and previously part of the French diplomatic service, was initially an ally of the ruling Georgian Dream party and was elected President of Georgia with their support.

However, her stance began to shift as she became increasingly vocal and critical of the party, particularly when relations between the Georgian Dream and the West began to deteriorate, and the party adopted a neutral position on the Ukraine war.

Amid the blame game, the ruling party says the opposition bloc has refused to provide proof showing Georgia’s Central Election Commission’s fault.

Some prominent independent and even opposition-aligned experts have also pointed out that they are yet to see any credible, well-documented evidence suggesting election rigging.

Without evidence, Western allies leaning towards the opposition would be unable to act.

Georgian Dream’s win and after

Economic indicators have strongly favoured the ruling party, with remarkable growth figures in recent years.

According to the National Statistics Service, Georgia’s real economic growth in September 2024 was 8.3 percent compared to the same period in 2023. The average real GDP growth for January-September 2024 reached an astounding 9.8 percent.

Before the enactment of the controversial "foreign influence" law that triggered mass protests in the spring and strained relations with the West—ultimately leading the EU to suspend accession talks—the US and some pre-poll surveys indicated that the ruling Georgian Dream party was positioned to win with an even larger margin than in previous elections.

The law required media organisations and nonprofits receiving more than 20 percent of funding from abroad to register as “organisations acting in the interest of a foreign power,” which would have exposed them to government audits and wider scrutiny.

As the unofficial election campaign began, international relations and the ruling party's stance toward the West and Russia became the central issues in the electoral struggle.

Campaign slogans and propaganda from both the opposition and ruling party centred on foreign policy choices between the Euro-Atlantic alliance and Russian influence, casting these choices in stark, almost apocalyptic terms.

Western media coverage reflected these polarised narratives, often labelling the ruling party as pro-Russian and the opposition as Georgia’s primary hope for a Euro-Atlantic future.

Reactions to the election outcome have been mixed internationally. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – the first foreign leader to visit capital Tbilisi after the hustings – congratulated Georgia on the results, commending it for not “becoming a second Ukraine”.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also congratulated Prime Minister Kobakhidze.

However, the EU reportedly expressed "disappointment" over the results. A coalition of 13 countries, including Germany and France, criticised Orban’s trip as "premature" and lacking authorisation to speak on behalf of the EU.

Though the US and EU criticised the parliamentary elections and called for investigations into reported incidents, they have yet to decide whether to recognise the victory of Kobakhidze.

The Russian angle

Before the elections, Bidzina Ivanishvili – the leader of Georgia’s ruling party – made an interesting statement in response to a post from the US Embassy in Tbilisi.

The embassy’s banner on social media read, “Bidzina Ivanishvili knows that the money related to Credit Suisse is not in the hands of the United States, but in the courts of Bermuda and Singapore. Why is he telling Georgians a different story?”.

In his reply, Ivanishvili clarified that neither he nor any Georgian Dream leaders have ever directly accused the US or the EU of financial coercion against him.

Instead, he claimed that when ruling party officials refer to “financial blackmail” and issues surrounding his bank accounts, they attribute it not to the US and EU but to the so-called “global war party.”

He stressed that references to the “global war party” were not meant to implicate the US or the EU. But he did not clarify whom he meant by the “global war party”.

Ivanishvili, Georgia’s wealthiest individual with an estimated $7.6 billion fortune, built his wealth in Russia during the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Ivanishvili has claimed in recent years that he is effectively “under sanctions” imposed by the “global war party” because Georgia did not join the embargoes imposed against Russia. As Georgian Dream officials argue, they did not allow the opening of “a second front” from Georgia's territory against Russia.

On December 31, 2023, during a Georgian Dream congress where he announced his return to politics for a third time, he stated, “I am indeed sanctioned; they bypass laws and fight me in the dirtiest ways. A month into the Ukraine war, all my assets were frozen, and I was dragged into legal battles.”

His legal team has outlined numerous lawsuits involving Swiss bank Credit Suisse, which froze £2.7 billion of his assets in March 2022, citing potential Russian links.

Ivanishvili’s lawyers argue that this is “political pressure” tied to the Ukraine conflict, highlighting his inability to retrieve a new helicopter from the US and UK or artworks from his modern art collection.

Some commentators suggest Ivanishvili’s return to politics is motivated by a desire to safeguard his assets through official status.

In early April, as protests erupted in Tbilisi over the law on foreign influence, the ruling party swiftly passed the “offshore law,” granting tax exemptions on funds from various sources entering Georgia until 2028.

Opposition leaders argue this law effectively turns Georgia into a personal tax haven for Ivanishvili, who has openly expressed concerns about protecting his wealth from international sanctions.

On October 8, Prime Minister Kobakhidze presented Georgian Dream’s pre-election platform, prominently emphasising the government’s foreign policy.

He outlined three key points: prioritising relations with the West, the need to reset those relations, and dissatisfaction with their current state. In a press briefing on October 2, Kobakhidze stated that Georgia should “cooperate with everyone, including the ‘global war party’,” in the nation’s best interest.

On the eve of the elections, he announced that all disputes with the West had been resolved. This dialogue suggests that both the US and Ivanishvili may be seeking common ground and resolving past tensions.

Historically, the Georgian Dream has pursued closer integration with the EU and has often expressed pride in its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

This makes labelling the party as strictly pro-Russian inaccurate.

The recent strains between Georgia and the West could be attributed to pre-election dynamics and shifting geopolitical realities, which many Georgians consider increasingly precarious.

Notably, if the “global war party” is neither the US nor the EU, the question remains—who is it? Ivanishvili’s assertion may hint at an ongoing or potential reconciliation with the West.

Ultimately, the upcoming US elections will likely shape the strategies of both the Georgian opposition and the ruling party. And the future of Georgia as well. With or away from the EU.