Haniyeh's assassination puts a damper on Iran's military machismo

The assassination in Tehran of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, celebrated as a hero for his struggle for the liberation of Palestine and revered by many freedom fighters worldwide for his political career, will spur a response, of which there are various scenarios.

One end of the spectrum, Haniyeh's killing could push the region to the brink of a new comprehensive war. On the other end, Iran may present a muted response.

Regardless of which scenario unfolds, it is clear that Haniyeh, the former prime minister of the Palestinian National Authority, was assassinated by Israel while on a diplomatic mission in Tehran.

This assassination, intended to escalate the conflict in Gaza to a regional scale and hinder peace efforts, highlights critical issues: Iran's security and intelligence failures and Israel's extensive operational capability within Iran.

Is this a new development, or have similar situations occurred in the past?

Israeli intelligence

An analysis of the crises between Iran and Israel in recent years reveals that a significant portion of these have been caused by Israeli assassination and sabotage operations against Iran.

The most recent Israeli air strike on Iran's consulate building in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, 2024, and Iran's retaliatory targeting of Israel with missiles and drones on April 13, 2024, brought tensions between Iran and Israel to the brink of war. However, effective crisis management prevented a full-scale conflict.

When analysing the relations between Iran and Israel, it can be argued that this covert war between the two nations began with Israel's sabotage operations inside Iran and continued with its assassinations in Syria.

Since 2020, Iran has witnessed various sabotage operations carried out by Israel on its territory. The most notable of these operations was the explosion at Iran's Natanz Nuclear Facility on July 2, 2020.

In a statement, Iran's Supreme National Security Council said that the cause of the explosion had been determined, but would be announced at an appropriate time for security reasons, raising the likelihood that it was a sabotage operation.

After this explosion, various allegations in the Iranian press claimed that Israeli intelligence agency Mossad has a strong intelligence and operational network inside Iran.

Indeed, the claims that the chief of Israel desk in the Iranian Intelligence Ministry during the presidency of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad turned out to be a Mossad spy; the theft of documents related to Iran's nuclear activities—considered Iran's cosmic secrets—by Mossad in 2018 and their transfer abroad; and Mossad's role in the assassination of key figures in the Iranian nuclear program were presented as evidence of Mossad's high operational capacity within Iran.

Most recently, former Iranian Intelligence Minister Ali Younesi stated in a speech that Mossad has infiltrated many locations in Iran and that the safety of the statesmen of the country is seriously endangered because of this.

Israel's operations against Iran have not been limited to sabotage and assassination operations inside Iran. High-ranking commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force have also been targeted in Syria.

For example, Seyyed Razi Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi, all senior commanders of the Quds Force, were assassinated by Israel in Syria.

In other words, such repeated sophisticated sabotage operations and pinpoint assassinations are evidence of the weakness of Tehran's counter-intelligence on one hand, and the ease with which Israeli intelligence can operate in Iran on the other.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran is yet another painful addition to this long list.

Absence of Shia leaders

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has been a hot topic of discussion on Iranian social media, with many leaders of Shia militias, who are close allies of Iran, not attending the swearing-in ceremony of Masoud Pezeshkian, who won the presidential election in Iran.

Shia militia organisations constitute Iran's most important regional allies. In Iran's official literature, these Shia militia organisations are referred to as the 'Axis of Resistance' and are coordinated through the Quds Force.

The most important of these organisations are the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Ansarullah Movement, the Iraqi Badr Brigade, the Iraqi Asaib Ahl al Haq Organization, and the Iraqi Nujaba Movement.

Considering the names of those who attended Masoud Pezeshkian's inauguration, it is noteworthy that Haniyeh and Secretary General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Ziad al Nakhalah attended the ceremony, while Secretary General of Lebanese Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah and Yemen's Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al Houthi did not attend.

Only Naim Qassem from Lebanese Hezbollah and Mohammed Abdulsalam from Yemen's Houthis were present. Additionally, it is noteworthy that the leaders of the Iraqi Badr Brigade, the Iraqi Asaib Ahl al Haq Organization, and the Iraqi Nujaba Movement, who frequently travel to Iran and are hosted at the highest level, were not present at the ceremony.

In other words, it is very likely that the leaders of Shiite militia organisations close to Iran chose not to visit Tehran due to security concerns. The assassination of Haniyeh by Israel in the centre of Tehran showed that the concerns of those who did not visit Tehran were not unfounded.