GOP bastion: Even a small gain in Wisconsin can influence Nov 5 outcome

Washington, DC — Early voting has kicked off in Wisconsin state, launching what could be a defining chapter in the 2024 US presidential election.

Both Republicans and Democrats are wasting no time, with the latter rallying support at a Madison event on Tuesday headlined by Barack Obama and Tim Walz, while Republicans intensify efforts to push early ballots for Donald Trump.

Campaigns on both sides of the political aisle warn of November storms — literal and political — encouraging voters to cast their ballots early.

Wisconsin's role in America's national politics and culture is impossible to ignore. This is the home of Harley-Davidson, a haven of cheese, and the place where the Republican Party was founded in 1854.

"Despite its GOP (Grand Old Party) history, this state used to be solidly Democratic," Marty Nowak, a Milwaukee political analyst, told TRT World.

"But Trump's 2016 win rewrote Wisconsin's reputation as a safe blue state. Biden barely flipped it back in 2020, and now we're in overtime. It could go either way."

With four of the last six presidential elections in the state decided by close margins, the line between victory and defeat is very fragile in Wisconsin.

Leaning into early voting

In 2020, Trump lost Wisconsin by just under 21,000 votes — a hauntingly slim margin that has pushed Republicans to lean into early and postal voting, an approach they once resisted.

Vice President Kamala Harris is also pushing Democrats to get ballots in early, recognising that even the smallest change in turnout could tip the scales.

Milwaukee's political significance runs deep. It hosted the Republican National Convention in the summer, highlighting Wisconsin's critical importance in shaping the 2024 race.

For years Wisconsin's "WOW" counties — Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington — have been the beating heart of Republican support. These Milwaukee suburbs are under the microscope again, with both parties watching closely to see if they'll shift in a race this tight.

Door County, another small but hugely influential bellwether that has sided with every winning presidential candidate in the last six elections, will also be closely watched.

"You never know how Door will swing," Nowak adds. "That's part of what makes Wisconsin such a thriller."

Sky-high stakes

Wisconsin faces a trifecta of challenges with the economy, immigration and crime being the key issues as rising inflation squeezes household budgets while the immigration debate divides communities.

Far from the Midwest, in Washington, DC, Andrew Reinke — a graduate of Concordia University Wisconsin and originally from Green Bay — shared how Wisconsin politics still shape his life.

"I already mailed in my postal vote, and it is not a vote for Harris," he told TRT World.

Reinke, whose political views are different from those of his parents, initially planned to support the Democratic candidate. However, in recent weeks, he has reassessed his position.

"Biden-Harris administration's economic and foreign policies shifted my perspective. My parents, who live in Brown County, are lifelong Republicans. They told me they are casting their votes early because they do not want to risk any delays if there's a storm in November."

The Reinke family mirrors a broader trend, as early voters on both sides lock in their choices amid a deeply polarised environment.

Demographics are also shifting the electoral calculus in these elections. While nearly 80 percent of Wisconsin is White, Hispanic and Black communities — at 8 percent and 6 percent of the population respectively — are also becoming targets for both parties.

Democratic and Republican campaigns are paying close attention, knowing that even incremental gains with these groups could make the difference in such a tight race.

With the stakes sky-high, every vote in America's Dairyland counts.

"Whether people are sending in a postal vote, voting early, or showing up on Election Day here, one thing is for sure — the race to the White House runs straight through Wisconsin," says Nowak.