With Harris and Trump tied in Michigan, Arab and Black voters hold key

Washington, DC — Arab Americans and Blacks — two of the most crucial voter blocks in Michigan — appear to be tilting away from Vice President Kamala Harris, potentially marking an election-defining swing in the crunch Midwestern state in the last leg of the race to the White House.

With more than a million absentee ballots already in, Democratic nominee Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump are tied, according to new polls, putting the swing state once again at the heart of a down-to-the-wire US presidential election.

"If Harris loses Michigan to Trump, there will be one main cause — her inability and unwillingness to separate herself from the Biden administration's horrific policy that has enabled so much death and destruction of Palestinians (and now Lebanese)," Jeff Cohen, a Bernie Sanders delegate to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, and a retired professor at Ithaca College, told TRT World.

Earlier this year, some Michigan Democrats made their frustration clear with the "uncommitted vote." In the primaries, although President Joe Biden won with 81 percent of the vote, the real story was the 13 percent — more than 100,000 people — who cast "uncommitted" ballots.

That protest, led by Michigan's sizeable Arab American community and progressive Democrats, was a direct response to Biden's unconditional support for Israel's war on Gaza.

These groups had showed up for Democrats in 2020 as well, helping deliver the state to Biden, but now they are angry at the Biden administration's monetary and military support to Israel's war in Palestine and Lebanon.

"People thought the (negative) voter perception in Michigan would end after the Democratic primary, but the feeling has only grown," Rachel Williams, a political scientist and policy expert in Washington, DC, told TRT World.

"Voters in Hamtramck, along with Macomb and Oakland counties, home to a large Muslim community, are angry, and they're not going to quietly fall back in line in these elections."

That anger is especially palpable in cities like Dearborn and Hamtramck, where Arab American communities are openly questioning their long-standing support for the Democratic Party.

In a move that shocked many, Hamtramck's mayor, Amer Ghalib, recently endorsed Trump, calling him "a man of principles".

"If Trump wins Michigan, it will be because many Muslim, Arab, or progressive voters abstain from voting in the presidential race or cast a protest vote for a third party," he said, adding that any victory for Trump will be on the back of this factor and not because people come out in droves to vote for him.

Black population and economic instability

Michigan also has one of the largest Black populations in the nation, and Detroit remains the largest Black-majority city in the US.

Detroit — the once-mighty Motor City — is struggling with economic instability. The auto industry, with giants like Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, has been hit hard by layoffs, aggravating a growing sense that Biden hasn’t done enough to boost the sector.

"Trump talks about jobs, and he talks about business," said Williams. "That resonates, especially in places like Detroit, where people are watching their livelihoods slip away."

Cohen, who grew up in Michigan, adds, "Detroit has faced enormous challenges since I was a 15-year-old boy there in the late 1960s, especially the racial divide. For decades, the Detroit area has lost a lot of jobs to de-industrialisation."

Harris' campaign, it appears, is struggling to inspire the kind of enthusiasm needed to drive black voter turnout.

Former President Barack Obama had to step in to energise some of those voters on Tuesday, when he spoke in Michigan.

"The good news is, Kamala Harris is ready for the job. She is as prepared for the presidency as any president has been. If you elect Kamala and Tim (Walz, her running mate), they will not be focused on their problems. They will be focused on your problems," Obama claimed.

Not too many were excited.

"People here have been through this too many times," Jason Ware, a community organiser in Detroit, told TRT World.

"They show up every four years, promise change and leave us with nothing. That kind of betrayal doesn’t just go away."

'Voters are ready to flip the script'

With the race getting down to the wire, both parties are pouring resources into Michigan.

If Trump wins Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, he'll be just two votes shy of the 270 needed to win the White House. Assuming Harris takes Pennsylvania and manages to win Wisconsin (which hangs by a slender thread), Michigan's 16 electoral votes will act as the decisive prize.

"Michigan has always been unpredictable," Williams said.

"Trump won there by just 10,704 votes in 2016. Biden took it back by about 150,000 in 2020. A few thousand votes could swing it again."

However, not everyone is ready to abandon the Democrats.

Layla Abdullah, a 33-year-old teacher from Troy told TRT World that she may reluctantly vote for Harris.

"It's not perfect," she admitted. "But between Trump and Harris, I still think she's the better option."

As the hours tick down to Election Day, the pressure in Michigan is at a breaking point.

"It's not just the economy or Gaza — I would say it's both," said Williams. "Michigan voters are ready to flip the script."