Bangladesh at the crossroads: What's next after Hasina's dramatic exit?

The future of Bangladesh is now in the spotlight.

After weeks of clashes between student protesters and police forces, Bangladeshi President Mohammed Shahabuddin has dissolved parliament and laid the groundwork for a new interim government.

Sheikh Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh for almost 20 years, resigned and fled the country after protests over civil service job quotas turned increasingly violent.

At least 300 people have been killed and thousands injured since the protests erupted in mid-July. Hasina's resignation was announced by Bangladesh's army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman, who held talks with major political parties and called for calm.

"I request you all to be a little patient, give us some time and together we will be able to solve all the problems. Please don't go back to the path of violence, and please return to nonviolent and peaceful ways," Zaman said on Monday.

It is now clear that economic and political stability are major considerations for Bangladesh. Well over a third of the country's population falls within the youth bracket and is neither employed nor engaged in formal education.

Public sector job quotas added to these economic frustrations, and became a major trigger for weeks-long protests against Hasina and her administration.

In response to student protesters' demands, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been appointed head of the interim government, suggesting that the military is open to civilian rule in the country.

Now with a sudden end to Hasina's decades-old rule, what comes next for Bangladesh?

Filling the power vacuum

Bangladesh's interim government faces the uphill task of filling Hasina's power vacuum. Efforts are underway to promote dialogue among major opposition parties, but increased coordination with civil society members will be a decisive factor in sustaining the government.

Consider the strength of Bangladesh's civil disobedience campaign and popular protests. Student demonstrations over special government job quotas transformed into a massive non-cooperation movement, making it critical to address underlying grievances to prevent protracted unrest.

This includes an end to political armed groups that have attacked demonstrators, and swift accountability for scores of protesters killed in recent violence.

Though the military has pledged justice under the interim system, significant questions surround the leadership structure of the interim setup – who will run it and what is the long-term plan to ensure a peaceful transition of power?

On top of these questions, a transition towards elections could prove necessary. After all, Bangladesh's protests mirrored a deeper public frustration towards Hasina's rule, which included limited space for dissent and opposition boycotts of elections.

Today, that frustration forms a common link between Bangladesh's main political opposition and civil society representatives. Both are working in tandem with the country's military to promote conditions for nonviolence and peace.

Since the interim government is focused on preventing further bloodshed, its explicit support for elections could play a decisive role in quelling unrest and upholding public will.

Reason for optimism

After witnessing the worst political violence in decades, there are some signs that stability can be established.

Protesters have limited incentive to resist the ongoing interim arrangement, given significant public support for the military and its status as a neutral actor in times of conflict.

Look to 2008, when the military stepped in to break political deadlock and steer the country towards elections. Thus, its rapport with main opposition leaders and civil society members at present could play an important role in promoting an arrangement that all sides view as democratic.

Near-term stability is also necessary to avoid economic costs. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Hasina oversaw a 7 percent annual growth rate for a decade, but a violent end to her rule has put the onus on much-needed rebuilding.

Curfews and internet shutdowns in recent weeks have reportedly hurt Bangladesh's $455 billion economy, and the interim government will find it difficult to shore up foreign exchange reserves amid any resurgence of violence.

All this underlines the merits of multi-stakeholder negotiations over Bangladesh's interim setup. For instance, talks have so far drawn representation from civil society members, and their engagement could potentially strengthen public ownership of the provisional government, and any post-crisis roadmap it agrees upon.

Impact on politics

Hasina's departure could have important repercussions for Bangladesh's domestic politics as well.

For years, political competition between her Awami League party and the Bangladesh Nationalist party (BNP) served as the dominant theme of domestic politics.

But political mobilisation was largely constrained by Hasina's dominant rule, and her ability to maintain power without relying on the opposition.

Some of those dynamics could change hereon. In a unanimous decision, Bangladesh's President Mohammed Shahabuddin ordered the release on Monday of Khaleda Zia from jail, chairperson of BNP and Hasina's political archrival.

The decision wasn't simply a prerogative from the top. It was the result of Shahabuddin's meeting with several opposition parties, the army chief and other stakeholders.

Therefore, the timing of Zia's release reflects a broader understanding to engage major opposition parties that felt alienated for years, or deprived of a level playing field.

This includes the conservative Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party, which was the target of the nationwide crackdown against protestors in the lead-up to Hasina's departure.

Now, it is working together with other opposition parties to prevent a return to violence and inform Bangladesh's future.

Ultimately, the unexpected end to Hasina's decades-old rule has left a huge power vacuum in Bangladesh. Some 171 million people will be waiting to see how major political forces fill this void, create conditions for stability, and prevent violence from spreading any further.